- about your text;
its very hard and upsetting play the evil
advocate, mainly knowing most here carry huge losses and hope for the best.
yes, in spite now im carry zero shares im also In hope for the best.
i did so many times well with MSB i just have good feeling and hopes and wishes for msb and the holders.
but the same wrong mistake in past is starting going on again and again.
this process to think, estimate, is exactly what makes people trow zillions, much more than they should, dreaming for double, triple, 10 fold their assets etc
playing the bad guy please allow me mention:
a) the value of all patents means nothing if u dont have approval that generates a real assets. Means, at that stage all 1000 patents realistic means zero
b)) estimate market and estimate we will have all that for us ( not paying anything to anybody) and estimating the net profit and later suggest a PE 30-35-50 times is exactly one fellow made few months ago suggesting MSB price will be “ in a conservative” version 69.00
that was ( and is) a joke !
the guy received more than 150 thumbs up !!
the text again suggest ... can u imagine 3.00 per share and 30x PE. Like suggesting 90.00 EASY will be the value if..,,
c) im also a believer GVHD will be approved but at that stage the only real suggestion is, we will need another costly trial to finally makes FDA be confident.
im based not in bla bla bla, But in what FDA said.
this especial meeting and chances are difficult, hard,complicate, involve so many technicalities that they chances the % of risk to be approved earlier , exist, but the are not 50% + 1 . As such why assume that will happens ?( in the short way we all would like (except FDA)
d) our funds in bank in best scenario is 1 year. We are “far” for comfortable with so many things happening simultaneously .
e) people downplay the class action but sounds likely yes will happen and yes they have a case. How will be judged nobody in world can say. Not somebody with minimum modesty.
but is an additional down and risk factor.
e) when a company failure in a sequence to achieve the endpoint the market credibility drops.
nobody can define “ who is selling” but we all agree. Plenty are selling. How much pain u are happy to carry and comes to the end and face one announcement that Novartis will not go ahead
can u afford ?
f) just as exercise:
the share goes to 1.50 (lets say in 10 days) and Novartis say no.(in 15+1).
We go easy to 0.99
can u really afford lose 45-50% ?
before any good news ( if will come)?and maybe in 1-2 years
what will be to entire project if Novartis refuse go ahead ?
again- sorry play such uncomfortable game but fair and relevant people dont be cheated by Rosie texts that show how “ likely” is the huge upside without showing how likely “also” is the downside
CATO
Expand
(20min delay)