Tweet - FAR 12 Month Value Drivers, page-96

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1,166 Posts.

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03/10/18

11:45

Post #: 35975051
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Originally posted by kkw ↑

LNC,

let's say we stick to items that we know are facts and see how this situation can play out.

1. As at the Sydney Presentation, we know that WPL has no holdings of FAR. FAR knows who the real holders were, even if they are under nominee accts. Even if they had started accumulating then, the accumulation wouln't amount to many. So any TO this qtr would have to be a HOSTILE one. Considering our top 3 holders also.
2. WPL has the $'s there's no doubt about it. (Could also be helped along by script swap)
3. Value for their share holders? Well they could even now pay round figures 1 bil and still have a good value for SNE field alone. Work on 56o mil and say value it at 4.50 plus an unofficial ungrade to 641 mil.4
4. SAMO COS, RISC figure 55%, FAR figure 50% is very high even CN said so and WPL would know this, so if it comes in, base on SNE only SP of 12c, SAMO success and SNE would be valued at 40+.
5. 1 bil (for SNE) = 25c. The normal 30% premium would make that 33c. How much for Possible success for SAMO? Rid of PE? I would (let's say another 10c).

These are all facts (except for the 10c). Any one accepting 43c NOW?

Maybe the fact that PC is so cocky about being an operator is because there is a hidden agenda of a swift hostile blow.
I think the 10c item would be the contentious point for our 3 top holders and PC.

For me 43c, I would say where are my TARGET OFFERS documents?

KKW

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Good points...one question?

Is the takeover premium based on the weighted average of the previous SP ? or is it as you have said ...over and above a proposed fair valuation of current assets?

My original post was in response to the possibility of a capper....and could that capper be WPL. I haven't assumed WPL to be an accumulator..but could easily see them launching a hostile takeover.

CV

FAR Price at posting: 12.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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