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Twiggy's Invex Therapeutics | The Imminent Coin Flip, page-18

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CatalystDriven

993 Posts.

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28/04/23

10:04

Post #: 67498324
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Originally posted by jellyroll: ↑

CD, absolutely fantastic work, thank you.

I feel like a bit of a pedant to point out one small area around the positive CNS Phase III trial statistics used ("coin flip"), as I think it underestimates our chances of positive read out. Given how broad the targeted indications are in the CNS category, you can split the category in various ways, however if you were to simply exclude trials in neurodegenerative conditions, then the Phase III success rate moves in to the 65% to 80% bracket that we see in many other indications, obviously, raised ICP is not neurodegenerative. Instinctively, one would think we might be towards the higher end of that range given that we are using a generic API that has been prescribed many millions of times.

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I think that is really worth mentioning I agree JellyRoll - both the Neurology category breakdown to find a more specific peer comparable Phase III success figure as you have noted, but also the repurposed drug element remove some tail risks associated with side effects etc prevalent in other Phase III trials and absent from ours.

Thanks mate!

IXC Price at posting: 45.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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