Twiggy's Invex Therapeutics | The Imminent Coin Flip, page-207

Again, as courtesy so it doesn't go missed, here are my copy pasted thoughts from the Directors Resignation announcement thread:

Appears that way in that major shareholders are taking the reigns and saying enough is enough. Its truly incredible to see and is a case of the tail end risk of investing in biotech stocks.

Project this story forward from a May 2023 base of $30-40M MC 1,000 times over and the result is a solidly + expected value. Meaning, if they managed to execute the trial up until Phase III read out, even in this environment, the stock price would likely be somewhere around $1 for a 100% return from pre-announcement levels ($75M cap) which is far below the $1.30 CR raise, with potential upon success of 100-1000%+ ($100M-500M+ Cap) on trial success/buyout.

The tail end risk of 10-20 of the 1000 possible outcomes is what has occurred here with the -50-75% result far below cash levels, where we haven't reached the "months away from catalyst event" which warrants a rerate from punters chasing the next NEU etc. and have instead got the 1% black swan of "cant progress trial and all get sacked" outcome.

If anyone told me a year ago, "there is a chance IXC cant progress the trial and the management all get sacked" I would agree that there was a chance, but nullified to a 1-2% black swan and worth the upside return profile.

Therefore Id bet the same bet with the same info again. Just unfortunate to hit the black swan so badly here, both the trial issue but then the immediate sacking by major shareholders, but here we are.

Amazing turn of events from TBI announcement to say the least.