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Managerisk

513 Posts.

167

08/08/20

09:41

Post #: 46394368
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Originally posted by aes411: ↑

Your theories are incorrect and misleading IMO.

These investment decisions aren't based on who's right or wrong or what money managers 'think' about the state of things.

The ASX's current share price doesn't mean investors have given the ASX a tick of approval as you seem to be stating.
Investors are not stupid. They see all that's happening but until there's more certainly about a material impact on ASX's revenue, investors won't sell their positions and short sellers won't take the risk.

The only loss to the ASX that investors are certain about at this time is ISX's trading and listing revenue, which is a drop in the ocean i.e. not material. The only likely causes of material impact (that I can think of) are the court ruling in favour of ISX for a huge damages claim, or Clearpay launching and gaining traction which are both still months away at best, so I don't expect ASX's share price to start reflecting these just yet.

You also make reference to NSX's share price. NSX isn't making good revenue and that's why the share price is where it is, nothing more or less. It has nothing to do with what money managers 'think' about Clearpay. The fact Clearpay hasn't taken off and the ASX doing its best to stall ISX's growth creates the sort of uncertainty investors don't want. Regardless of all our emotions here, the reality is this game isn't about who is right or wrong or people's emotions. It's about who is clearly likely to win and earn revenue from the business, and until there's more clarity money managers won't bother. If Clearpay launches and starts gaining traction, then obviously the price won't be where it is now.

By now, only the willfully blind won't see what the ASX is doing here. But are smart investors going to start letting their emotions get ahead of them in their investment decisions? Only the novices would, but then that's why there's a concept called 'smart money' that always wins in this zero sum game.

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Markets are forward looking. Good investors make money by making an accurate assessment of what a companies future looks like and investing accordingly.
Like a mining company with a great deposit. Good investors don’t wait until they’ve built a mine and are earning revenue. They predict this well ahead. By the time the revenue comes most/sometimes all of the share price appreciation has already happened. Investors valuing ASX and NSX are no different,

ISX Price at posting: $1.07 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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