I’m not expecting a colossal surge (eg +100%) in the SP post...

I’m not expecting a colossal surge (eg +100%) in the SP post confirmation of 99.5% but I will predict that the SP will increase by 20-25% (either on the day of, or by the third day post). I’d expect the positive trend to continue in the near term, bolstered by other announcements (scale, new OTs etc) and a generally positive sentiment returning to the Li sector.

I’m predicting that sort of movement because the confirmation of BG LCE for AGY is a little bit more of a big deal, when say, compared to other companies:

i) It’s widely understood that PA has a unique skill set, and has chosen Rincon to express it. This has attracted a large amount of global attention. There is quite a lot of buzz around whether there will be any confirmation of what has been suspected for some time. It is a confirmation of skill, chemistry, timing and location. Once confirmed (and this is no small feat) there will be a surge as investors start to see what is possible. This will carry some weight, however...

ii) More importantly, and subsequently, of greater impact to the SP  - AGY has the capacity to go from a BG LCE PoC to a highly profitable (and large-scale) operation in a very short period of time. I think there is a number of investors (and probably JV/OT partners too) who are looking at Stage 2 and 3, and thinking: “Well, all good you have built the capacity, but what use is it, if you can’t convert it?”

So as soon as AGY say “BG LCE is a go” they’ll slot in what has been one of the final major pieces in the puzzle, the longer-term picture (that has been slowly emerging over a number of years) will suddenly become clearer, and the re-rate will occur.