two articles on iron ore looks good for ady, page-11

12/09/06 02:28 COMMODITIES ANALYSIS; IRON ORE

Provisional data reported on Reuters today, citing Chinese steel industry website mysteel.com shows that China imported a record 32.8 million tonnes of iron ore in August, taking total imports for the first eight months of 2006 to 219.07 million tonnes, up 25% y/y.

Official trade data from the Chinese Customs authorities should be availaible within the next few days, but if the mysteel number proves to be correct it is a big positive surprise to our estimates - particularly as Chinese domestic production of iron ore is running ~40% above last year's rate! We are currently forecasting a 50 million tonne (18%) increase in Chinese imports of iron ore in CY06 to 325 million tonnes. It will be interesting to see the breakdown of Chinese imports by source - we suspect the sharp rise in long-haul capesize freight rates could be indicative of a big month for Brazilian exports to China in August.