two bobs worth

Well this seems a lively topic

MPO ? Well I got in on that little down swing a few days before the big subprime one thinking i could get a few $$ on the retracement. Well the idea was good...

Since then dribbling death.

All my own stupid fault. I was watching the sell side build up on the morning of the 15th and thought bugger it and went to work - broke my own rules and it fell faster than I could think. Well only one way up from there eh?

OK where are we now ? That's hard. My thoughts are not that MPO is in trouble as much that there are more attractive things elsewhere. They are getting about $2.00 per MCF for their gas and natural gas does not have as much export appeal. If you had spare cash where would you put it over the last few weeks - in a gas or oil or iron? So it's not that it is ugly as far as speccies go - just that a busload of oversold cheerleaders just dropped into the bar and have attracted everyones attention.

Their annual report lacks a clear to read summary table of 2P reserves and asociated value - although when I pick through it and discard China (no idea what Chinese gas sells for on their local market so i ignore it) I come up with a conservative 500 BCF - call it 80 cents a share. But this year? Dunno Not including 2P reserves we are looking at about 0.03c a share asset value.... So this one is all maybes.

Chart wise a weekly view of the bollinger bands puts it just touching the bottom (bounce ?) line. Not saying it will bounce - but would say it needs to test this before it will.

Daily view has it following the lower bollinger band down = bearish.

RSI has crossed the 30 mark - now oversold. Would also say that this is a good thing - the RSI has been trending down for months and needs to bottom. I would say its close.

So gut feel? It should bottom over the next few days - perhaps a week with some retracement back up. How much I don't know - would prefer to see more than $481k gas sales revenue - would like some hard dates - with something that remotely resembles a production schedule.


Tell you what though - those cheerleaders are sure looking good - trust me to be caught hanging on to a fugly that's gonna cost dollars to dump - and know what? bet when i do get rid of this thing some other ba$tards will have picked them all up.