as I see it there are 2 possible outcomes for this company:
1: the corrupt regimes will be successful in delaying projects and making life impossible for EWC to an extent where EWC will be forced to offload assets at much lower prices than book value to a corrupt group of locally controlled companies. Currently share is valued at half of book value so it cannot go much much lower but let’s say that’s a possibility. Given the financing is secured for 3 years the chances of this happening is lower now. Coincidentally the general pressure to provide low cost energy is growing so this is playing against the corrupt counter incentivised local coal companies.
2: scenario is that the above mentioned groups get overruled by authorities or somehow they come to some sort of agreement on how they can share some benefit from EWC value creation. I see this as a more likely scenario in the mid term.
In any case if you look at the chart it’s close to all time low with energy trends in the Philippines in our favour. Any you know what they say: Buy low and sell high. Well this seems just the right situation to me to double my money in 1 year.
Thoughts welcome
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