In the current environment to call a $3.90 target for fair value...

In the current environment to call a $3.90 target for fair value is like trying to eat an ice-cream in 100 degree heat, in my view, virtually impossible.

I did my own estimates and struggled to get a value of more than around $295m for current mine life operations, plus $114m cash, plus $100-200m max for exploration assets. This is based on world bank forward nickel price forecasts that are somewhat optimistic to where we sit today. This gives me a value of circa $1.80-2.05/share. Just can't see anything close to $3.90 unless the outlook changes dramatically. Even increasing to my optimistic view I'm struggling to get much more than low $3's and that's based on the USD nickel price reaching $9-10/lb in my out years...

Operating cash flow for the half year was $33m at around USD5/lb average realised price. We are now at just over USD4/lb which means getting close to break-even (operating cash flow wise) without sustaining capex and sustaining exploration spend. With a market cap of $570m at current prices you've gotta do a fair view years of production making free cash flow (after sustaining capex etc) of $100m when discounting to get to the current market cap. Just saying....

I'm close to my stop loss and wish I'd got out a few weeks back when I felt the same but didn't act...

My own opinion obviously, each is welcome to their own.