TYP 0.00% 1.8¢ tryptamine therapeutics limited

Thanks Mason.I haven't completed the future cash flow...

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    Thanks Mason.

    I haven't completed the future cash flow projections, however here are some quick figures.

    *** Please note, this only for Fibromyalgia **** And I have been very conservative on market penetration, clinical probability, execution, and PE ratio ****

    Theoretical Revenue Potential of TYP-8803 Treatment
    Type of condition Fibromyalgia
    Treatment PathIV psilocin
    Number of cases annually (1)4,000,000
    Percentage of Patients would suit this type of treatment100%
    Assumed % treated with treatment (market penetration)10%
    Number treated with treatment400,000
    Average treatment cost AUD (2)$4,500
    Estimated Potential Revenue (AUD)$1,800,000,000
    Assumed After-tax Margin13.5%
    Net Profit After Tax$243,000,000
    P/E (below current pharma industry average (3))25
    Estimated Capitalisation $6,075,000,000
    Indicative most recent PhasePhase IIa
    Clinical Probability Score (4)30%
    Commercial / Execution Probability Score (Board quality)25%
    Probability8%
    Fully-diluted share issue1,089,000,000
    Assumed dilution 20%
    Estimated Share Issue1,306,800,000
    EPS$0.19
    P/E (pharma industry average)25
    Unrisked Valuation $4.65
    Risked Valuation $0.35
    Current price$0.022
    Bags (unrisked) 211
    Bags (risked)16



    1 - Fibromyalgia | Arthritis | CDC
    2 - Positive Phase 2a Fibromyalgia Results Deliver Pain Reduction in 100% of Patients, Strengthening IP Position and Clinical Trial Strategy | INN (investingnews.com)MDMA, psilocybin treatments tipped to cost at least $25,000 (smh.com.au)How Much Does Psychedelic Assisted Therapy Cost (And Is It Worth It?) - Tripsitter
    3 - U.S. Pharma Industry Analysis (**.st)4 - Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters | Biostatistics | Oxford Academic (oup.com)

    Not advice, DYOR, etc
 
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