Interesting analysis but you're way off with some figures.
Number of cases annually: 4,000,000
The incidence rate of fib is way lower, maybe about 150,000 new cases annually in the US.
Market pen of 10% is too high. There is no way in the universe 10% of patients are hooking their arm up to the IV wacky juice and completing a course of psychotherapy. I reckon 0.5% would be super optimistic.
TYP - Research, Results, Valuations, and Comparisons, page-3
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