In light of further increasing kintetic warfare over weekend in Middle East - i thought it appropriate to post analysis of Jim Rickard's 2026 view on PoG
Thus :
"Executive Summary: Jim Rickards’ Gold Standard Plan and Investment Strategy
Overview: Jim Rickards, a financial commentator, advocates for a U.S. return to a gold standard by July 2026 to stabilize the dollar and curb inflation. His “genius” investment move centers on physical gold and “Penny Gold” small-cap mining stocks via his “Midas System,” predicting gold prices could reach $15,000–$27,000 per ounce.
Gold Standard Feasibility:
- Unlikely by July 2026: No specific plan exists, and implementation faces significant hurdles:
- Economic: Backing 40% of the $17.9 trillion M1 money supply requires gold at ~$27,533/oz, a 1,000%+ increase, risking market disruption.
- Political: Congressional approval and global coordination are needed, with no evidence of momentum.
- Timeline: Less than 13 months is insufficient for such a complex shift.
- Merits: Could stabilize prices and restore dollar confidence, supported by central bank gold buying (e.g., China, Russia).
- Challenges: Limits monetary flexibility, risks deflation, and faces global resistance, with BRICS exploring alternatives.
Investment Strategy Assessment:
- Physical Gold: Recommends 10% portfolio allocation as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. Historical bull markets (1971–1980, 1999–2011) and recent trends (~$2,500/oz highs in 2024) support moderate upside, though $27,000/oz is speculative.
- “Penny Gold” Stocks: Claims up to 3,390% returns if gold hits $15,000. High-risk due to volatility, operational issues, and lack of transparency in Rickards’ “Midas System.”
- Risks: Gold’s volatility, opportunity cost (no yield), and speculative forecasts. Mining stocks are particularly risky.
- Merits: Gold’s safe-haven status and leverage potential in mining stocks during a bull market.
Implications:
- A gold standard could disrupt trade and limit growth but benefit gold-producing nations. Rickards’ predictions may drive retail demand, risking a bubble.
- Critics, like Modern Monetary Theory advocates, argue fiat systems are viable without gold.
Recommendations:
- Gold Standard: Treat as a theoretical scenario, not a near-term policy. Monitor geopolitical and monetary developments.
- Investments: Allocate 5–10% to physical gold or ETFs (e.g., GLD) for diversification. Approach “Penny Gold” stocks cautiously, prioritizing established miners (e.g., Newmont). Verify Rickards’ picks independently.
- Further Info: Check Strategic Intelligence for Rickards’ services, as pricing details are unavailable.
Conclusion: The gold standard by July 2026 is improbable due to logistical and political barriers. Rickards’ investment strategy offers hedging potential but carries high risks, particularly for speculative stocks. A balanced, diversified approach is advised."
(20min delay)