I think UBS' conclusion is right. Stage 4 is selling very well now. Pick up a can in any supermarket or pharmacy, flip a stage 4 can over you can see that the dates of stage 4 are always the latest.
One of my classmate back in China had just became one of my 'customers' as well as A2 and the dairy industry down under in general. She used to physically travel to HK and buy imported IF from countries like Japan. It's a lot more expensive, dairy quality is obviously not as good as Australasia and it's really a pain in the arse to travel 20-30k (from Shenzhen) just for some grocery shopping not to mention you have to go through custom and border check on both ways. And there's a limit of 2 cans per person. The penalty they face is not a security lid you find in woolies or coles. The previous HK executive Leung set up a rule for anyone who exceeded the 2 can per person limit to be fined 500k HKD and 14 days prison term. Yeah, you go to jail if you smuggle more than 2 cans of IF out of HK. I feel lucky that I don't have to buy stuff for others in HK.
Since the start of uprising in HK she had no chose but to source IF from elsewhere. My other 'customer' who happened to be another classmate referred her to me and she was surprised how cheap IF down under was and how convenient the 'daigou' experience was. I can easily charge her 30% more maybe even 50% as she had no choice but there's no point of doing so. She openly expressed to me how cheap A2 IFs were and I decide not to reap her off simply because she's a musician obviously don't know how to do business. I look after everyone whenever I can.
When I shipped the first parcel to her I think her daughter was 4 and half something like that. I reckon her daughter is 5 now and still consuming a lot of A2 stage 4. The feedback she gave me was her daughter absolutely loved A2 formula. Heaps better than any of the brands she gave her daughter before. She and her daughter should remain a consumer of A2 for another year or two (mainly stage 4). This was what happened to my wife's cousin's son who stopped purchasing A2 IF from us when his son was around 6.
My loyal 'customer' who referred more business to me and A2's son decided not to drink more milk or IF by himself. My 'diagnosis' was that he probably weaned himself as a genetic intervention. Both his parents don't consume much milk. However, both my customer and her son like cheese. I told her that cheese and butter have all the benefits of milk and it doesn't contain much whey and lactose which is even better. More nutrient dense less carbs, the keto, low carb diet you should know that all by now. I can bullshit them more about the benefit of milk as she really trusts me but I'm just a guy who feels like doing the right thing. Maybe that's the reason people trust me in the first place. Besides, she probably bought few hundred units of A2 IF from me so she and her family contributed enough to the business. The best cheese Chinese can get in China is probably Kerrygold which is an Irish brand. Butter wise maybe Kerrygold or Anchor. That was my recommendation. If her son consumes enough cheese and butter there's really no need for milk.
All in all, stage 4 was, has been and will continue to do well so does the business. Let's see how much A2 made during the 1st half of 2020.
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