Gindaldan,appreciate your comments.Not trying to ramp FMG over...

Gindaldan,
appreciate your comments.

Not trying to ramp FMG over GBG and I don't own FMG currently. I do though still hold a few GBG so more the stupid me for writing my views!

Agree re. risks that FMG run but FMG have a massive resource and tenements that have cheaper costs in comparison to GBG. GBG more susceptible to IO pricing but have a large resource and reasonable tenements too.

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"Margin wise GBG significantly surpasses FMG. The key is tonnage, which FMG will always surpass GBG. "
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Couple of points re your comment above. FMG have historical data to support their figures- GBG's by comparison are simply projections and we all know their projections to date have proved different or varied markedly from what they have claimed in the past so real costs are yet to be established. I.e. Don’t bet the house on GBG projections!

Secondly, GBG's offtake benchmark used is based on Hammersley Fines I believe and FMG can sustain a reduction in prices far better than GBG because of a lower cost and higher production output. Also capex for GBG to increase mag concentrate above original 8mtpa are massive and on a per tonne basis in comparison to FMG, far, far exceeds it.

Lastly, costs are the real key here between the two, not margins. FMG's costs will come down as output increases while GBG's will go up as they are forced to go deeper and deeper as years go on.

Also re your returns from GBG, you will be waiting 3-4 years to see those 200% returns from GBG when for the last 6-12 months, blue chips have been returning easy, quick and safe 100%, 200% and more, returns in months or weeks even, if you had basic fundamental and reasonable charting skills!!!

Guess where most of my money has gone for the last 12 months that GBG has tracked sideways - trading blue chips. The last 6 months has been the best time ever for traders and cashed up long termers alike, but if you held throughout the down cycle, you would have undergone a significant amount of pain for nought and missed out on a once in a lifetime opportunity.

The point is a lot of investors have been looking at the two birds in the bush and have overlooked the golden goose that you could have taken advantage of in the meantime.

And if anyone thinks that I'm crapping on, you can't say I didn't write enough warnings when the market was spiralling downwards while others were trying to ramp it up. In the meantime a golden opportunity is slipping by but I wish all good luck in whatever you do.