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spot on RB, Majority of broker target report forecasting SP $45...

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bgtaylo

3,806 Posts.

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17/10/19

20:18

Post #: 40939770
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Originally posted by resourceboom: ↑

there is no way I’d value apt on a pe of 10 - I’d use at least 50 more likely 100 during its rapid growth phase.

its incredibly difficult for most people to value a company that realistically can grow revenue at 2x each year over the next say 3 years.

i value it (not saying this is right, just my way) at approx underlying sales, eg if the current run rate is 9B then 9B MC. I think I remember polar bear saying he did roughly this way too. It also correlates loosely with pay pal MC valuation.

whether you value this at fwd or trailing revenue means I roughly value it between $20 and $40 sp at the moment, and I don’t want to be accused of ramping but based on these assumptions over the next 2 years i think it will reach $60 (dec 2020) and $120 (dec 2021)
at least it won’t take long to find out

when the co is more mature, say 10 years it will probably imo settle down into a roughly 30 p/e like visa/mc.

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spot on RB, Majority of broker target report forecasting SP $45 , 2020 EFY. So they are comfortable with fair value SP at 11.25 billion ($45). Say we net 120 profit 2020. This would mean brokers accept a p/e of near 100 for a stock this scale/growth rate

APT Price at posting: $31.98 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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