hi mate,thanks for the reply - I'll make this my last post...

hi mate,

thanks for the reply - I'll make this my last post here as I would want to bore any of the holders with my 10 pages essays haha.

I have read those reports (admittedly not in depth) and from recollection they projected GMV figures 50% higher and a net margin 10% higher than apt's forecast. certainly a bullish prediction. If these figures come to fruition - sure $40+ price targets are achievable I mean - this was only 10% higher than what the company traded at making a loss.

i will endeavour to get around to reading them in more detail for education purposes so appreciate the reminder.

that said, if the consensus of the forums logic is to read a brokerage report and base investment decisions on that then by the same virtue people should read the UBS and understand what a detailed bearish outcome is? (for what it's worth I'm not suggesting this) but it's probably best to read both and understand the upside and downside. apply a likelihood for each invest accordingly.

regardless of all that - the reason I don't read brokerage reports in much detail - is because they're not worth the paper they're written on (being non-independent). One might wonder why such a brokerages would release such a bullish or bearish takes unless they desired the shareprice to head in that direction (presumably for ones own benefit). I generally do the complete opposite of what brokerages advise. if they say apt is heading to $40 it's not because they're buying the stock to that point - IMO it's because they're offloading at it. then they release a $30 one and accumulate. rinse repeat etc.

same reason I'd believe UBS is more likely intending to accumulate from either the short or mid term price softening. the issue for Goldman and Morgan is that UBS has jumped the gun and triggered the offload before they probably had a chance to distribute. they'll now either be forced to move with the current market move (down) or persist against it. I'm watching the shorts in APT with interest if these start to grow it might have more legs than anticipated.

With that in mind if APT can continue to shown strong quarter on quarter growth and eventually start to turn that in to a tangible profit I've got no doubt that the shirt term pain will be overcome. it might even bounce back as early as next week. ($29 being the T/A target I indicated)

Finally; regarding the reference to CSL. if APT are ever turning 3bn in profit annually with consistent growth and a P/E ratio of 40 then you might be absolutely right.

For interest sakes to produce that profit at a 2% net profit on sales would require apt to process 145bn in sales annually. which would need to be generated by approximately 145m customers.

that means for every 1 person who uses afterpay now they'll need another 28 additional. which is roughly a market penetration 20% of the global population with an income between 20k-100k.

Will make this my last post as I have probably overstayed my welcome as a non-holder shunned to the deep.

I appreciate the civil responses and balanced opinions. as indicated in my original post - I thoroughly encourage non-holders with relatively objective views contra views to express them. hopefully this conversation has been more constructive for reader than the typical non-holder quips of 'this is a dog'. 'no profit lol'. usually helps to test ones assumptions.

admittedly agree that high growth or emerging sectors such as bnpl sector or healthcare, biomeds are intrinsically hard to valuate projected growth years in advance which is why many can come up with different valuations and also results in high volatility in the early stages of development.

Again, truly wish everyone the best of luck on here or any investments. I want everyone to make money. except the brokerage houses they can go and get...

SF2TH