uganda worth, page-5

Hi caraman,

What is 30mbls worth to hdr sp at say $1.80...and each 30mbls thereafter??
hdr $1.80 plus 30mbls=????
$1.80 plus 60mbls=????
$1.80 plus 90mbls=????
Wouldn't reckon to much of Uganda is factored into current s.p.
Anyone care to have a stab

This is my take of things. No doubt many will disagree. Anyway, given it's undeveloped oil in ground, it can only be valued at $4 per barrel (which will increase when the capex is spent on developing it). Since we are still at an early stage of the development life cycle, we'd have to risk it at say 25% COS (chance of success) for 60MBO (for M&W). For Hardman 50% and 720 million shares on offer, that equates to 16c per share unrisked, or 4c per share risked at 25%.

Of course, the per barrel numbers will quickly rise to $8-10 per barrel once it is developed. It's at a significant discount due to its remote location + geographical/political risk. The thing with valuing in-ground assets is that you can input any numbers you want that will end up with a wide range of resulting valuation. It comes down to how much risk you factor in and how confident you are of M&W being developed for production.

Just my two pennies' worth.

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