202020,Most of the share analyst are conservative in their...

202020,
Most of the share analyst are conservative in their estimate of Relenza sales for very good reasons. Analysts often discount sales estimates to take into account CEOs who ramp their company sp with bullish outlooks and statements. It is almost unheard of for a CEO to ramp down the company shares with misleading, deceptive and idiotic statements.

When BTA sp shot up at the outset of the swine flu outbreak, on 28 April Peter Cook slammed the sp with:
Quote: “To assert, right now, that this (swine flu) will cause a massive rise in sales, well, that class of response is erroneous and lacks understanding."

We know Peter Cook is a proven idiot as 3 days later on 2 May GSK announced it is doubling production.


And on 23 July after GSK had announced it is tripling production capacity to 190 million doses p.a, again Peter Cook created doubts on the saleability of the increased production with his statement:
Quote: ''The expansion of Relenza capacity and any increase in resultant royalty payments, will not effect Biotas cash position until June 2010, at the earliest''

Many HC readers were misled into believing the increased production will not be sold until at least after June 2010. Those who had followed BTA closely know BTA received royalties retrospectively at the end of June each year. The idiot’s statement on cash position is unnecessary and in my opinion intentionally stated to slam down the sp by creating doubts whther there is any demand for the additional production. Share analysts such as Panmure Gordon estimated sales of less than half the 190 million course pa capacity.

Many readers here uncovered articles after articles clearly indicating Health Authorities could not get enough Relenza due to the severe limitation in production capacity. In addition to these said articles, consider these:

Quote: ”Global sales of the anti influenza medicine Tamiflu (oseltamivir) rose 203% to 1.0 billion Swiss francs in the first half-year, following the rapid worldwide spread of a new strain of influenza A/H1N1 (‘swine flu’)” and
“Responding to the current pandemic threat level, Roche and its network of manufacturing partners have scaled up Tamiflu production and by the start of 2010 will be able to supply up to 400 million packs annually, should the need arise. In addition, Roche some time ago granted sublicences to three manufacturers to produce generic oseltamivir for pandemic use in China, India and specified developing countries.
Source of information: http://www.roche.com/med-cor-2009-07-23-e.pdf

1.0 Billion Swiss Francs for half year = 2.0 Billion Francs p.a = 2.2 Billion AUD.
And this do not take into consideration the increased production capacity to 400 million packs! Ask yourself these questions:
With H1N1 growing resistance to Tamiflu and growing psychotic side effects on young patients, why is Tamiflu outselling Relenza?
Why is Roche increasing production capacity to 400 million packs p.a. or for that matter GSK increasing to 190 million doses p.a. All those who know GSK know that time agaig and again GSK is forced to increase production capacity because Government authorities were demanding to buy Relenza - increased Relenza sales has nothing to do with GSK marketing!!

Do this sum:
1 dose is approximately AUD1.70 in royalty to BTA.
At 60 million p.a. production capacity to 30 Dec 09 = 30 million doses to 30 Dec.
If you assume 50% of the 190 m capacity is sold = 47.5 million doses (1 Jan to 30 Jun) Therefore estimated Relenza sales = 77.5 m x Aud1.70 = Aud 132 m royalty.

If you assume 60% of the 190 m capacity the 08/09 royalty = (30m + 57m) x 1.70 = Aud 148 million.

If you assume 75% will be sold, annual 08/09 royalty = (30m + 71m) x 1.70 = Aud 172 million.

If you assume 90% will be sold, annual 08/09 royalty= (30m + 85m) x 1.70 = Aud 195 m

At today closing $2.16 sp BTA is capitalised at Aud 378 million. (175m shares x $2.16)

What about Relenza royalties for 09/10? 190m doses x 1.70 = Aud 323 million 09/10 royalty!!

What about the value of LANI that is going to be registered for sale in Japan in early 2010?
What about licensing fees for LANI for the rest of the world?

Yes, thank Peter Cook for the seriously undevalued shares!!