Housing downturn isn't a huge issue because most of the residential properties have gained equity over the years. Banks only make losses if house prices drop 30%+.
Residential is considered one of the least risky areas of a bank which is why they are classed a low RWA (Risk-weighted asset) compared to higher risk business and agribusiness lending (both 100% RWA and very capital-expensive for banks).
I'm a Risk Analyst, trust me when I say CBA has the least to worry about. Also worth noting they announced a dividend payment today, at the highest amount the regulators would allow for. For a bank to pay a dividend this half they had to complete internal stress testing (which is what I do) and the board has to show the results to APRA to gain permission to pay a dividend. CBA is well capitalised and well positioned to weather this storm (their recent divestments helped their capital ratios) and are even paying a dividend. They'll be fine mate, definitly the safest bank in Australia by a long shot.
I'm too young to be holding banks but one day when I rotate my growth portfolio into yield I'll be buying CBA. Also a big fan of MQG!
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