General comment to all. When looking at an investment you should focus on the downside and let the upside take care of itself. When looking at CFU rather than focus on where they are better than competitors and lock yourself into a self affirming loop, you may do better to focus on where they are weaker.
Here is one image for household electricity usage, it shows the average household demand less than 1kW and peaking at around 1.2kW. So does a 1 vs 2kW system make that much difference? http://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/wp-content/uploads/Average-NSW-household-in-summer-electricity-consumption-vs-PV-generation1.JPG
Can the bluegen load follow? Last time I went to a demo that was a categorically no.
Does the Bluegen system look good, as will be demanded for mass adoption in Europe where boilers are commonly installed inside? No, it's a large ugly outside box, designed from an Australian mindset of outside hot water systems.
Every new tech has warts and those who marry themselves to one player are usually the ones to loose capital. I'd love CFU to be the winner and they are certainly well positioned and ahead of Ceres.
Both Ceres and Ceramic, like many tech upstarts, purposefully allow investors to delude themselves on timelines. If they laid out an honest open assessment from day one then they'd never attract investors, it's part of the game and why Peter Lynch recommended waiting for earnings to appear prior to investing.
No position in any fuel cell company. No opinion on eventual winner.
CFU Price at posting:
12.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
