All i apologies for falling into personal attracts especially you Chem who I attacked in a Unacceptable way
So lets look at some data that supports my belief in multiples especially during corrections which we are just starting now. They have a long way to go.
Last night Lynas up 7% ASX 200 up 0.10 %
Last night Lynas down -13% YTD. ASX down -4.8 % YTD.
SO there must be a some stocks up on the ASX 200. I do not know but my guess is about 25 to 50 or so are up. In correction some stocks fall a lot more than others. Manly, Stocks with high multiples. So here is a chart of Lynas verses 3 Miners I have bought recently BHP and RIO are on the ASX, FCX is not. I think it is easy to see the correlation between Multiples and SP from this chart. The average multiple is (5 * PE + 4 * BV + Revenue) divided by 10. I pulled this out of a book years ago and I still like it. there are others.
Does any one not see a correlation between multiples and SP change as we enter into this Correction? Any one that does not believe it Find me two stocks that are going up on the ASX 200 with a PE over 40! there is my data and my proof. Could people that believe this is junk offer some conflicting Data? The Market is still optimistic But it is accelerating to ward the Pessimistic. The green Stocks were extremely optimistic and are still optimistic as well but they are moving fast in a pessimistic way. Example have to be for period during this change, Jan 1 is a good point. Note a correction corrects all stocks. Stock with very low multiples move up. Stocks with high multiples move down. The further from historical average the faster they move. The historical Average for ASX 200 and S&P 500 is the about the same 15. Lynas is going down more these mining stocks will go up more before this is done. It should be done in about a year possibly 2 Yes Lynas will recover but it will not be in a year. It took Amazon 9 years to recover from DOT Com.
| PE | SP/Book Value per share | SP/ Revenue/ share | Average Multiple | YTD Change. |
|
| Lynas | 53 | 8.1 | 17.0 | 31.44 | -13% |
| BHP | 10.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 6.816 | 10% |
| RIO | 6.75 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 4.545 | 16.4% |
| FCX | 2.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 3.66 | 11.5% |
For some reason sorters are Verry pessimistic about Lynas going down right now and that is strange to me. Only thing I can think of is they were burned badly over last few years and they are staying away. Any other ideas?
(20min delay)