# * Tymoshenko refuses to concede defeat - yet* Prospect of...

# * Tymoshenko refuses to concede defeat - yet
* Prospect of court challenge, snap parliamentary election
* Much could hinge on verdict of monitors

By Richard Balmforth
KIEV, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Exit polls gave a narrow win for
Ukraine's Viktor Yanukovich over Yulia Tymoshenko in Sunday's
election for president, but the refusal of his rival to concede
defeat appeared to deny the country a quick return to stability.
Three exit polls put opposition leader Yanukovich between 4
and just over 5 percent ahead of Prime Minister Tymoshenko. But
though the victory was hailed as "absolute" by a Yanukovich
aide, it was narrower than his camp had hoped for.
The charismatic Tymoshenko, 49, who rallied tens of
thousands against Yanukovich five years ago in the "Orange
Revolution" protests over his rigged election then, refused to
concede victory to her opponent on Sunday night.
She said she would await the official results of the count
which were coming in overnight.
Significantly though, in a televised broadcast that was
moderately-worded in contrast to her usual fiery style, she did
not renew a threat made last week to call her supporters out on
the streets if she suspected electoral fraud.
Analysts say that probably reflects a realisation on her
part that there is no appetite for a replay of the Orange
Revolution in the country of 46 million which is in the grip of
a deep economic crisis and suffering from election fatigue.
If she made such a call and it flopped, it would be
politically dangerous for her.
But, if the narrow Yanukovich victory is confirmed by
overnight results, then her aides could still try a legal
challenge to the result.
In Ukraine's bureaucratic judicial system that could lead to
protracted legal wrangling.
"Such a small gap means that there will be a serious fight
for the final election results," said Yuri Yakimenko of the
Razumkov Centre.
"The margin is not convincing and it is not the 10-12
percent as Yanukovich's side has said. They could not fulfil
their tasks and so we await a long court battle," he said.

OSCE VERDICT
Other analysts said much would hinge on the final verdict
handed down by international election monitors led by the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe which is due
on Monday -- and if Tymoshenko will accept their findings.
"Tymoshenko needs to concede defeat. However, she will not.
She will do this at some point and that will all depend on the
opinion of the election observers," said Mykhailo Pogrebinsky of
the Kiev research Centre of Political Studies.
Even if Tymoshenko finally concedes, Yanukovich will have to
be careful how he handles his powerful rival whose sizeable
share of the vote has underscored her role as one of the most
powerful and able politicians in Ukraine.
After the bitterness of the campaign in which she has openly
insulted him, he has made it clear there is no prospect of an
alliance with her.
Ukrainian media quoted him as saying she should prepare to
resign as prime minister.
Assuming Yanukovich's victory is confirmed, Tymoshenko can
expect in any case to be ousted as prime minister by a vote of
no confidence in parliament. Yanukovich will then seek to put
together a new coalition to get his own ally into the key role.
For this, however, he may need the support -- by no means
certain -- of the Our Ukraine faction of President Viktor
Yushchenko. Yanukovich may need only some of the Our Ukraine
faction to secure a workable majority.
If this fails, then he will have to dissolve parliament and
call a snap parliamentary poll which will put back further the
chances of a stable government and delay the resumption of
much-needed bail-out cash from the International Monetary Fund.
Fresh parliamentary elections could be held as early as June
though autumn is more likely. However, Yanukovich appears to be
reluctant to call fresh elections, fearing voter fatigue.
Most analysts agree that the winning side needs a strong
majority in parliament -- if only to avoid the sort of
paralysing conflict there was between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.
"There are a lot challenges in the country. We don't want a
repeat of the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko relationship," said Tim Ash
of the Royal Bank of Scotland.