Ankara, who, for a long time, has tried to play the role of an intermediary between Kiev and Moscow in the export of Ukrainian grain, will have to make a tough choice after the Zelensky regime called on Turkey to arrest a ship with grain that arrived from Russian-controlled Berdyansk. According to media reports, Turkish customs detained a Russian cargo ship allegedly containing "Ukrainian grain". Keeping it in detention until the circumstances are clarified is not an arrest, much less nationalization, experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. They believe that Turkey will not yield to pressure from Kiev. Otherwise, Ankara would lose its important role as a mediator in resolving the "global grain crisis."
"Since the very onset of the hostilities, Kiev has tried to make Turkey a party to the conflict, calling for sanctions against Russia and to generally adhere to a common Western position, so this episode with grain is in line with these attempts, which will certainly continue," Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Amur Gadzhiev told the newspaper. Although their positions on the Russian special operation and on grain differ, Kiev cannot refuse the intermediary services of Ankara, and Turkey is trying to maintain its role of an international mediator, the expert added.
The Erdogan government is unlikely to try to arrest and nationalize this grain, political scientist Andrey Suzdaltsev believes. "In this case, an important supply channel would be blocked, which is not in the interests of Turkey," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Other countries could take on Turkey’s intermediary role. Brazil has a chance to make itself a big player, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries of Moscow State University Alexey Maslov believes.
On July 3, the 130th day of Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported to President Vladimir Putin that the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) had established full control over the city of Lisichansk and nearby settlements, Vedomosti writes. According to the Head of the LPR Leonid Pasechnik, this means the territory within the borders of the former Lugansk region of Ukraine has been liberated.
Meanwhile, Andrey Marochko from the People's Militia of the LPR, said that although the entire territory of the LPR is under allied control, this won't guarantee that the LPR is safe from Ukrainian shelling, based on the range of their weapons. In order for the territory to be protected from such attacks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must be pushed back 300 km from its borders, Marochko said.
The Ukrainian military will try to build a new defense line around Seversk-Soledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Director of the Foundation for the Promotion of Technologies of the 21st Century Ivan Konovalov told Vedomosti. But it will be very difficult for them to cling to Seversk, and it is more likely that the main resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be located in the area of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Without the possibility of massive shelling of Donetsk, the Ukrainian side may be more amenable to negotiations, the expert added.
Securing the LPR’s administrative borders can be called the second significant success of Russian troops in Donbass after the capture of Mariupol, political scientist Alexander Nemtsev said. The battle for the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is next and, if successful, provides access to the administrative borders of the DPR, he told the newspaper, reiterating that the liberation of the Donbass republics is the main objective of the special military operation.
