ukraines leaders still getting nowhere

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Ukraine: A Conflict between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko
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Monday , 10 March 2008

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I believe that domestic policy problems, differences between President Viktor Yushchenko and Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko, and the gas war between Ukraine and Russia should not be mixed.

I think that it is wrong to say that some government officials sabotage the President’s decisions or agreements since the gas conflict with Russia has nothing to do with them. This is a long-standing special subject that should be discussed separately. But the bottom line here is the intermediaries in the gas relations between the two countries. The question of the revision of the gas relations was raised several times.


As regards the conflict between the President and the Prime Minister, they compete with each other for almost everything. Virtually all of important decisions or steps taken by the Cabinet evoked a reaction from the President’s Secretariat. Those include the privatization issues, inflation, the return of the deposits of the Soviet Savings Bank and the gas issue. So, it is incorrect to say that the Premier and the President are at variance only because of the gas relations with Russia.

Today the government can be changed only through altering the coalition composition. As far as I know, Tymoshenko is not going to resign. The existing democratic coalition does not intend to raise this question either.

It is unclear whether early parliamentary elections will be held. No party would be the winner or the loser after those elections. The Party of Regions could take advantage of discussing the NATO referendum. On the other hand, the party and its leader are getting less popular in Ukraine. The voters failed to understand and support the blocking of the Verkhovna Rada’s activities.

The Party of Regions seeks to conclude an alliance with the pro-presidential Our Ukraine Bloc to change the coalition’s composition. This is one of the major reasons for blocking the Verkhovna Rada, the Party of Regions would like to come to power again. But the point is that the majority of Our Ukraine members are not ready to build a coalition with the Party of Regions.

In the event of the snap parliamentary elections Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc might take more votes than in the recent ones. The Bloc’s rating is growing. But nobody knows whether the Cabinet will keep its composition after the elections.

The situation of Our Ukraine is still more complicated. There are differences within the Bloc and attempts are being made to create a new pro-presidential party. Also, the rating of Our Ukraine is not high, and it is doubtful that the new force could win if the early parliamentary elections were called.

The Communist Party of Ukraine and Lytvyn Bloc could do no more than make it over the three-percent hurdle.

This way, the Verkhovna Rada does not have the majority interested in the early elections. It is rather not in Yushchenko’s interest that the early parliamentary elections be called. He wants the set of agreements on joining the WTO to be ratified by the Verkhovna Rada. This would be his important foreign-policy victory. The decision on holding the elections will not be indisputable in terms of law. It is incomprehensible who the President would rely on in the new Parliament if to take into account Our Ukraine’s low rating. That’s why there is no speaking about snap parliamentary elections in the near future.

March 6, 2008
YURY YAKIMENKO,
Director of Political and Legal Programs of Razumkov Center, Kyiv

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=53307