un warning on h5n1 x h1n1 combining, page-2

The stockpiling market was ~USD6.5bn and USD1bn/annum before Swine Flu (according to a biota presentation). Countries were actively stockpiling anti-virals incase of H5N1 mutation. Lucky for all of us this has not happened.

Now Swine flu has hit and shown the world that (1) it's almost impossible to stop the spread of a virus even if caught very early and (2) vaccines are not the answer as they take too long to develop, hundreds of millions could die before a vaccine is developed. This market is likely to have grown dramatically.

The US "Report to the President" dated 7 Aug 2009 states that anti-virals are a key weapon against pandemic, in particular H1N1 Swine Flu. Many should be stockpiled ready for use... production limitations require actual stockpiles to be held rather than depending on companies to increase capacity after a pandemic virus hits.

I strongly believe that Swine Flu has dramatically changed the way the world leaders will view pandemic. They've hads SARS, H5N1 Bird Flu and now H1N1 Swine flu... without stockpiles you are basically defenseless against the smallest of human enemies. The world spends $1,200 billion per annum on military defenses... they will certainly spend a few billion more to defend against something that can cause many more deaths that world war I and world war II put together!

Biota has Laninamivir and later down the track FLUNET. Global Pharma are well aware of the stockpiling market (and likely new seasonal demand) and will actively bid for LANI. I think the LANI license deal will be an absolute cracker, a record breaker. Biota has seens it's drugs transformed from dogs to blockbusters practically overnight... now time for the share price to catch up.

Will the world prepare better for the next Pandemic? I think so. I think they'll hold a diversified range of anti-virals and actively encourage development of others. Biota has become a key player in the defence against viruses and the market will eventually wake up to that fact.