unbelievable stock, page-4

Yes, it is a very frustrating stock. I have lost a fair bit of $$ with it. They can publish the best results in terms of traffic, that will not change the sp.

As said earlier, the only way to get some movement on the sp is a takeover.

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Below is the latest report (18/02) from Bell Potter on this stock - not that encouraging re their price target...

1H11: Cash flow generation accelerating

1H11 results in-line; distributions now ~70% OpFCF covered
Revenue in-line: $104m (+15% on pcp) v UBSe ($105m); EBITDA in-line: $66m(+32%) v UBSe $65m. Costs were down ~9% ($3.4m) y/y and EBITDA margins increased to ~63% from ~61%. 1H11 distribution of ~1cps is now majority funded by OpFCFs (~70% backed) with the deficit covered by CEU?s free cash balance.

„Realising underlying cost savings: UBSe ~$6m in FY11
1H11 underlying cost-outs of ~$4.5m vs. pcp relate to increased customer selfservicing, the Transfield operations alliance, and technology related reductions and
improvements. Management indicated they expect cost savings to continue for another ~12months albeit at a slower rate (we estimate a further ~$2m in FY12). In the long-run, we expect EBITDA margins to trend towards ~80% (currently
~63%).
„
Stabilising traffic growth and capital return potential
Short-term focus will be on growth stabilisation on Eastlink?s northern sections following completion of the Monash Freeway upgrade and Springvale Road grade
separation. In the longer-term, underlying fundamentals remain in tact, supported
by demographics and future network developments (e.g. Peninsula Link). With existing cash reserves, we think a special distribution (~2cps) cannot be ruled out post OpFCF alignment with DPS (UBSe by FY13) & the FY14 debt refinancing.

Valuation: DCF = $0.46 = Price-target. Maintain Neutral
We?ve adjusted our forecasts slightly to reflect traffic mix and cost reductions. Our 12-months forward equity DCF is $0.46, applying a ~10% discount rate. TCL remains our preferred toll road pick in the sector.