TLS 0.52% $3.86 telstra group limited

unbelievable, page-64

  1. 2,052 Posts.
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    Well a price exceeding book value of $1.33 at $4.00 is possible ...but will it hold against a major correction in markets of a 25% to 50% pull back.....All StockMarkets are dancing to the US market's tune....and the US market by consensus is 100% to 150% overvalued...ie almost three Standard Deviations from the long term mean....to get some idea of how much the markets in the USA have moved....

    The Nasdaq 100... has moved from in early 2023 approx 11000 to a top of 210000 to now 18500 so in one and a half years has almost doubled!!! That is by any stretch of the imagination crazy.

    The S&P 500:which is represents a broader view of the US market was in early 2023 about 3600 to a high of approx 5600...a move of approx 2000 points now at 5344...approx
    1744 points still a huge move from 3600.

    The Nasdaq in the same time period has moved from approx 10000 to 18700 ie almost doubled and now is approx 16700,again a huge move in such a relatively short time.

    These moves are unprecedented ...and 100% overvaluation could be readily accepted...thus a mayor pull back of 35% to 50% is not outside the realms of reality.

    It is useful to remember Warren Buffet now has more T bills than the Fed at US$277 billion and by Warren Buffett's measure of over valuation the value of the US economy is half the value of the Stockmarket ie the Stockmarket is now twice the value of the economy...this value has always occurred prior to previous Major market corrections .

    As I said the price of TLS is now $3.84 relative to its book value of $1.33..... As the price of shares go it is almost three times book value and has already moved down from a recent price high of $4.28.

    At a debt to equity ratio of over 90% and a PEx of 21.33x I believe TLS's present price, facing a negative Macro-Economic outlook,' is some what overstretched.

    All the Best to All
 
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