Unbelievable....

In their latest report, Bell Potter analysts are assuming a $20m capital raise by Neuren sometime before June to fund the planned NNZ-2591 Phase 2 trials. Bell Potter is currently assuming a raise at $2.00 per share, which is equivalent to $0.10 per share pre-consolidation (Nov 2017).

Of course, this is only Bell Potter’s assumption, but I’d observe that brokers’ assumptions regarding capital raises are amazingly more accurate than their share price predictions. I’d also observe that BP was the Lead Manager and Bookrunner for Neuren’s capital raise in 2013.

The October 2013 raise was the last one which accommodated retail shareholder participation. Ultimately, $23.5 million was raised, with retail shareholders taking up $2 million of the $3 million worth of shares that were on offer to them. The raise was at $0.115 per share.

If Bell Potter is proven to be right in their capital raise and pricing assumptions, the offer price this year would be at 13% less than that of more than 6 years ago.

During those years, since October 2013, Neuren has achieved the following:

1. Successful Phase 2 trial of trofinetide in adults with Rett syndrome (Nov 2014)
2. Successful Phase 2 trial of trofinetide in a paediatric patients with Rett syndrome (March 2017)
3. Completion of all animal toxicology studies and manufacturing scale-up of trofinetide (2018, 2019)
4. Commencement of pivotal Phase 3 trial of trofinetide in Rett syndrome, fully funded by partner (Oct 2019)
5. Commencement of Phase 3 extension trial of trofinetide in Rett syndrome (January 2020)
6. Successful Phase 2 trial of trofinetide in Fragile-X syndrome (Dec 2015)
7. US and EU Orphan Disease Designation for trofinetide in Rett syndrome (Feb, Aug 2015)
8. US and EU Orphan Disease Designation for trofinetide in Fragile-X syndrome (Oct 2013, Aug 2015)
9. Grant of Australian, US, EU and Japan patents for trofinetide in Rett Syndrome, Fragile-X syndrome and Autism disorders (June 2016, May 2017, April 2018)
10. Successful preclinical animal model results for NNZ-2591 in multiple sclerosis (Aug 2014)
11. Successful preclinical animal model results for NNZ-2591 in Phelan McDermid syndrome (Feb 2019)
12. Successful preclinical animal model results for NNZ-2591 in Pitt Hopkins syndrome (May 2019)
13. Successful preclinical animal model results for NNZ-2591 in Angelman syndrome (May 2019)
14. US Orphan Disease Designation for NNZ-2591 in Phelan-McDermid, Pitt Hopkins and Angelman syndromes (Oct 2019)
15. Grant of US patents for NNZ-2591 (June 2014, Dec 2017)
16. Grant of EU patents for NNZ-2591 (Nov 2015, Dec 2019)
17. Licensing Deal with Acadia Pharmaceuticals for trofinetide in North America allowing for:

• Acadia funding and execution of all further development of trofinetide in the United States
• US$10 million upfront payment
• up to US$105 million in development milestones for Rett syndrome and Fragile-X syndrome
• up to US$350 million on achievement of thresholds of total annual net sales of trofinetide in North America, all of which Neuren said it expected to achieve if trofinetide is approved for Rett syndrome and Fragile X syndrome
• escalating double-tiered percentage royalties on net sales of trofinetide in North America
• one third of value of any Priority Review Voucher awarded by the FDA for trofinetide (potentially worth approximately US$30 million)
• Neuren to have free access to all data and regulatory information for trofinetide for use in regulatory approval applications in ex-North America jurisdictions.

What more can be said. It's unbelievable…..