Uncover the TBN Matrix, page-2

more nonsense from a professional downramper. Who you working for Celtics ?

Some answers to your mystic thoughts

1) “Approaching FID”?That’s the cover story. But look closer. This isn’t a proven development. It seems more like ahigh-risk, capital-hungry appraisal project camouflaged with uneconomic near-termproduction. $100's of millions already invested. Still no 10k ft lateral flowing. No commercial flowrates against TBN’s real-world costs. An NT regulatory landscape scarred by the 144 costly Pepper recommendations and only getting worse as the Beetaloo progresses...
(1) Its not a proven development.....becuase its not a proven development. Thats the whole point - its a project starting and moving to development ...Duh.
(2) Near term production is economic - the nubmers stack up.
(3) $100m already invested...Duh ...yes ...last time I checked thats what you spend during exploration phase and then some moving into production phase...or do you think you wave a harry potter wand and a fully functioning Gas production platfor just magically appears ?
(4) No the 10,000ft lateral that has been drilled is for production is shut in till H2 2026 to supply the SIGNED agreement to the NT governmetn to supply gas to Alice. Or do you think its smart to vent all that valuable gas from the already drilled 10,000f lateral that is SH3 on a whim ? I would call that idea stupid and use the ST well for flow testing.
(5) "Scarred" ha ha ha sound like to many teledramas been watched.

2) The choke game.They restricted the IP30 flows at the start through smaller chokes. Claim it’s forbetter EUR. But in reality? Shouldn't they mention that it 1) boosts ending flowrates, AND 2) reduces the decline rate — and as a result can make comparisons to other shaleproduction curves look better than they are. Will they play the same game withIP90? Watch closely.
Please point out where TBN have claimed to have "restricted the IP30 flow rates though smaller chokes for better EUR." I would be interested in reading further on this.


3) The endless future narrative.LNG dreams. Data centre hype. Magical cost reductions. The more they talk aboutthe future, the less they show you the present. Is it sleight-of-hand. Misdirection. all while the share price floats — just longenough to raise capital (again)?
Rubbish. The cost reductiosn per well are real and will continue. Maybe try reading the reports. '...The more they talk about the future.' .... what is this supposed to mean ... are you copy and pasting from guff chatgpt ??!! Maybe you should stop taking the red pills ?

The present is very real - read the quarterly reports - or are you suggesting that great big rig and frack units are photoshopped and that TBN lied when they drilled the current well being flow tested, and lied when they completed the SH3 10,000ft lateral and that they are not going to commence antoher 3 wells very shortly, that that tehy dont have an agreement to supply the NT Govt gas, that the pipe connecting to the SP pipeline is fake? that the compression unit is fake ? When you sober up from your red pills, and you need a reality check, start with the pictures in the last presentation

4) The speed illusion.Fast drilling is central to their low-cost story. But with a 17% drillingsuccess rate recently (0.5 full laterals off 3 attempted), something doesn’t add up. Can you have 10,000 ft, fully fraccedlaterals at their depth and still drill at high speed? Or are we being shown acode sequence that simply doesn’t execute in the real world?
Please explain how SH3 is not a full 10,000ft lateral ? Oh - again - maybe check the quarterlys - I do believe they have provided the drill times for the wells. Less Red Pills please.

5) Misaligned allies.HP and Liberty were paid handsomely — in TBN shares — to enter the system.Sure, they want the SP to rise, but their ROI lives in USD. High AU$ drilling costs?That’s likely to be TBN’s burden. These aren’t benevolent agents — they’re just playingtheir side of the game.
Really - I thought HP and Liberty were a charity and drilling for free ? Your not making sense. Again less red pills please.

On the topic of high australian driling costs - well - guess what - everything has higher costs in Australia. Thats why the spot market for gas in Australia is 4x of henry hub (USA). DUH.

6) The Mystical Market.The narrative from the company and paid analysts? East coast gas buyers,double-digit prices, boundless demand. But the pipeline transport cost to getthere? About $5/GJ based on published tariffs. That leaves actual gas price received in the single digits.And just like solar crashes electricity prices on a sunny day, Beetaloo successwould flood the NT gas market — pushing prices down, not up. You can’thave high production and high prices in a small market. Which means thisBasin only works at export scale… and given the NT’s insane O&G regulationsand inherent remote development cost disadvantages, that vision could be more smokethan substance.So we’re here in the code. Searching. Somesee Hope. Some of us are seeing glitches. Others might spot something new.Either way — we’re not in dreamland anymore.Welcome tothe mystery that is the Beetaloo Matrix.Feel free to drop yourthoughts. Share your knowledge. Help decode the Beetaloo matrix.
Firstly - you still have not proven your unfounded statement $5/GJ. What do you know of Gas price recieved ? And I see you are still obsessessed of your gas flood of biblical proportions . Other than TBN....please explain where this massive tsunami of gas is comgin from that is going to collapse local gas prices ? Hmmm ...still waiting for that answer as well.

And i have to laugh out loud "NT Insane O&G" regulations. Its the exact opposite - Evidenced by NT government appointing a specail 'envoy' to fast track gas developments and cut red tape and clear hurdles.

Finally, "Welcome to the mystery that is the Beetaloo Matrix"
No mystery here. Project development planned is layed out. Milestones are being acheived and gas will be supplied by TBN to the NT goverment next year.

The only mystery Celtics is why are you downramping TBN ? Who do you represent ?