Under $0.50 Celebration, page-251

You're absolutely right: many experts have been surprised by the numbers coming out of Africa. For example Canaccord Genuity (July 2024) about Zimbabwean spod:

"…a source of supply growth, but it comes with a catch……...These include ability to reach nameplate capacity (engineering, mining and plant build quality), lower concentrate grades (2023 avg of 2.9%), higher costs (lower output, inflation, fuel and logistics) and increased sovereign challenges (capital gains tax changes from 5% to 20%, changes export permits). So while we see the potential of Zimbabwean supply, and upgrade our long-term output, we also believe near-term capacity is somewhat overstated and this supply tends to be clustered at the top end of the cost curve."

This comment was showed on screen and backed by Ken Brinsden.

Clearly the experts are surprised, but negatively.