FY-20FY-21FY-22FY-23FY-24FY-25FY-26FY-27FY-28FY-29FY-302020202120...

				FY-20	FY-21	FY-22	FY-23	FY-24	FY-25	FY-26	FY-27	FY-28	FY-29	FY-30
1				2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
2				2020a	2021a	2022a	2023a	2024e	2025e	2026e	2027e	2028e	2029e	2030e
3		Production/Operational
4		Pilgangoora
5		Key Metrics:	Ore Mined	812.1	2,095.7	3,406.4	5,034.8	4,486.0	5,050.0	6,375.0	6,800.0	9,600.0	9,600.0	9,600.0
6			Strip Ratio	1.4	2.2	5.3	5.3	6.2	7.8	7.8	7.8	6.0	6.0	6.0
7			Ore Processed	642.2	1,579.6	2,415.3	3,445.3	3,927.1	5,050.0	6,375.0	6,800.0	9,600.0	9,600.0	9,600.0
8			Pilgangoora Spod Prod	90.8	281.1	331.9	620.2	657.7	808.5	1,012.0	1,065.0	1,503.5	1,503.5	1,503.5
9			Spodumene Shipped	116.3	281.4	315.0	607.5	660.0	808.5	1,012.0	1,065.0	1,503.5	1,503.5	1,503.5
10			UBS Realised Spodumene Price	519.7	478.4	2,309.0	4,507.5	1,240.0	889.1	1,041.4	1,198.7	1,354.5	1,408.8	1,444.1
11			Unit Costs (CIF China)	359.5	392.2	651.5	749.4	557.2	589.4	640.2	696.1	675.0	694.6	712.0
12			Unit Costs (CIF China)	535.6	524.9	897.5	1,113.1	851.4	877.7	916.1	958.7	902.1	926.1	949.3
13			AISC (CIF China)	359.5	392.2	661.9	831.9	637.2	657.7	698.4	733.0	702.6	722.9	741.0

	WACC		10%
1	Valuation Summary		A$m	A$/sh
2	Pilgangoora		7,368	2.42
3	Calix Midstream		200	0.07
4	POSCO Downstream (PLS 18%)		296	0.10
5	Exploration		1,300	0.43
6	Corporate & Other		(499)	-0.16
7	Total Assets		8,666	2.84
8	Net Debt/(Cash)		(551)	0.18
9	Price Target		9,217	3.05

Don’t shoot me down. I’ve been on/off PLS for some time and own a large holding in other Li stocks. Attracted by current beaten down status for premium product and future non-China IRA compliant downstream product.

UBS model is detailed (extract above) and useful even if we don’t agree with assumptions.