What gets consistently overlooked and under-estimated is the...

What gets consistently overlooked and under-estimated is the energy demand arithmetic arising from under-developed and developing countries (which, in fact, in terms of the global population represent multiples of the high-energy consuming affluent population of the planet, so if you get the developing world energy calculus wrong, you get the entire subject wrong).


By way of just one example of the degree of the perennial under-estimation of growth in energy demand from the developing world comes from China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which every year - as part of it's strategic planning - puts out a forecast for the peak in Chinese oil demand, both in terms of the volumes, as well as the timing, of such a peak.

Here's the history of those forecasts for peak Chinese oil demand (and year in which the peak was predicted to occur):

2017: 13.4 mn bl/day (peak in 2027 peak)
2018: 13.9 mn bl/day (2030 peak)
2019: 14.2 mn bl/day (2030 peak) [*]
2020: 14.9 mn bl/day (2030 peak)
2021: 15.7 mn bl/day (still saying a 2030 peak, but that is somewhat moot given the level from which the decline starts - if it indeed does start post-2030 - is going to be a lot higher than expected even quite recently)

So - within the space of just 4 years - there has been a mammoth 16% increase in CNPC's predicted peak in Chinese oil consumption.

(And remember, those earlier predictions were made before Covid came along and rattled the global economy for 18 months.  
So despite the demand dampening impact of Covid, the peak Chinese oil demand level has been ratcheted upwards in a quite dramatic manner).


[*] Chinese oil consumption today - Covid impacted, remember - is already 14.2m bl/day, so the forecasts as recently as 2019 were waaay off the mark.