Under-estimating oil demand, page-5

I think you will find that he Chinese (being an oil/gas importer) will not want fossil fuel prices to escalate and will regard the increase in energy consumption as an opportunity to export nuclear reactors (SMR's) to developing world locations (he Belt and Road initiative to finance them). Currently the Chinese (and Russians) export coal fired power stations but have now said that they will phase out coal fired (and I assume also gas fired) power stations but will attempt to cease the initiative by adding exports to their domestic nuclear industry and attempt to take a technology lead over the west and also create technology dependency on Chinese nuclear technology so as to assert influence (Huawei telecommunications is not the only strategic technology they want to dominate - control of a countries power system is a vital strategic lever). I think you can expect that over the next couple of decades nuclear power station supply to the third world will be a major issue and will be promoted under the banner of saving emissions.

IMO this will undermine any thoughts of Australia (Twiggy) supplying competitive "green hydrogen" using cold water electrolysis from intermittent renewable energy - it's simply so much more cost effective (and thermally efficient) to produce electricity from (cheaper and modern) Chinese built nuclear power stations to meet primary electricity demand and use excess nuclear energy (or overbuild) to produce hydrogen (and industrial heat) by high temperature steam electrolysis which can be used as feed stock for fertilizers, steel smelting, synthetic oil. ammonia etc. I think the Americans, Canadians and UK understand this issue and will strongly compete with China - to me the potential for energy in the developing world during he 2030/40's is likely to be nuclear rather than fossil fuels - it make so much more sense from a climate perspective and has more strategic significance to both China and the West neither would not be too worried about the middle east/Nigeria missing out and Russia would simple switch from oil to nuclear (where they are also a world leader). WPL may have a chance to be competitive in the hydrogen business with methane pyrolysis but cold water electrolysis using renewables is IMO just a subsidy play which will eventually collapse (renewables "capacity factors" also exasperate this thermally inefficient route to hydrogen viability) when reality strikes and imports of "green" nuclear hydrogen undercut this silly route to hydrogen then the "penny will drop" and the talk of Australia being a Hydrogen "superpower" will IMO go "pear shaped" - just hope Meg will take the pyrolysis route and maybe carbon capture with steam methane reforming (SMR) - cold water electrolysis using intermittent renewables is iMO a dead end and only useful as a subsidy play (see Warren Buffets view's HERE "without the subsidies, they’d be losers: “...on windenergy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms.That’s the only reason to build them. They don’t make sensewithout the tax credit." (2014)")