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02/01/19

01:08

Post #: 36998695
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Originally posted by JID: ↑

Afternoon Guys,

Michael Oliver from MSA has been a long time follower of the gold (and other) markets, using a proprietary momentum analysis tool.

He has a solid track record of making big calls over market cycles, the success of which is due to his analysis of momentum trends vs. price trends - the former establishing themselves before the later.

Michael has made a big call (from a career perspective) that gold and gold miners were/ are poised for a very solid uptrend in the coming couple of months (a few weeks ago).

One of his inflection points to watch was if gold moved through $1,280.

Gold has done that as of Friday on the Cash Market (US$1,280.83) and the Front Month Futures Contract ($1,283.40). It is through these points that Michael Oliver believes the price moves will accelerate.

We will see soon enough whether this was a good call or not - however, in an interview I listened to last week, he was the most bullish on a particular subject that I have ever heard him (usually he is quite reserved).

On another topic, Q3 numbers were particularly bad for the USD reporting gold miners, in part due to high oil prices. Q4 numbers, which will be released in late January may be improved materially due to the fall in oil prices (for unhedged producers) and especially so for those with higher AISC and large volumes of earth moving required. Coupled with the improved average gold price in Q4 vs. Q3 this may provide a little kicker for the sector from late January all else being equal.

Additionally, from Exploration Insights, they have noted that in 5 of the last 7 years, gold miners have performed very well from late December through to PDAC (end of Q1).

So ... it would seem that we MAY have a confluence of tailwinds to support the miners for the next few months ... it would be a good time for RSG to prove that it has successfully executed its mine development at Syama.

Cheers
John

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Hi JID

Do you have a rough idea of how much the fall in oil prices will impact on AISC for a miner like RSG or RMS if you follow them (they do a fair bit of trucking).

I like the triple kick of a low AUD, rising gold and lower oil prices.

Cheers.

RSG Price at posting: $1.16 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 71.8¢		Change -0.003(0.35%)		Mkt cap ! $1.538B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
72.0¢	73.5¢	71.0¢	$7.821M	10.80M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
47	426068	71.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
72.0¢	289926	27

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
32	280985	0.715
29	732429	0.710
19	574287	0.705
18	1200250	0.700
9	233800	0.695

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.720	358679	24
0.725	379225	31
0.730	660068	19
0.735	628888	15
0.740	516434	13

Last trade - 14.04pm 18/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

RSG (ASX) Chart

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under performing, page-144

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