Gozz, interesting question you pose as to whether TRF will/can exercise all of its IFE options. Points that occur to me:
1. options will be left to lapse if IFE share price less than, say, 77 by end of March
2.TRF does not appear to have sufficient cash to exercise all its options ; would/could they borrow short term to fund them ? TRF's 20% free carried will help here - 20% of first years profit is $10m and they do not depend on IFE declaring a dividend.
3.Sell more ROL ? (I don' think this is likely)
4. just what % shareholding does TRF require to retain effective control ? They only have 33% at present. If they do not participate in the options they will reduce to approx 26%. Is that enough for Ian et al to control IFE and ensure they keep their director's jobs ?
5. they could sell their options (probably at a fair premium) now and to a friendly party
6. While the 20% free carry is immune from any dilution (a huge advantage IMO) it does not give any voting rights. 7.The income from the 20% over the next few years (especially from the DSO) is going to be huge - much more that TRF will ever need for exploration
I don't know the answer to the question but it will be fascinating to see what happens if IFEO are in the money. IMO if TRF exercise all or most of their options it will be the strongest vote of confidence in the Wicherry Hill project you could hope for - Ian and crew (who are the only ones completely aware of all relevant information)borrowing money to increase their personal stake in the Iron ore resource (while still having all the gold etc up their sleeves!)
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