The quick run up I did this morning. Very conservative with lower than guidance production and higher costs. 0 expectations for mcphillamies. Return on capital 9‰ at current prices which is pretty solid to me atm compared to cost of money, property yields etc.
If I use middle guidance of 485k Oz, 1360aisc, at current prices the 'yield' jumps to almost 12‰. Still allows for zero upside for mcphillamies.
Valuation at $3 a share results in just shy of 9% yield and very doable. More upside exists if we tack on 200k production from mcphillamys.
All its assets in Australia which is huge benefit. All based on a flat aud gold price, while I think we will be challenging the highs within 12 months given monetary and fiscal outlook around the world.
Edited to add: also treats capital as a straight up expense which obviously isn't true either, but good enough for simple review and it's very conservative to treat it this way.
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