There are indicators in the quarterly reports that AISC is rising due to some technical problems/reduced production (temporary). These indicators also hint that some guidelines (AISC and prouction goals) might be breached.
Also, at current gold prices (AUD 2.350 or lower) the Tropicana deal and the corresponding share price dilution actually leads to a lower EPS than before the deal.
So
a) the gold price decrease since late summer of 2020
b) the increased AISC and lower production output
c) explorations costs with pending decision on McPhilammys
d) the Tropicane deal
will sum up to a lower EPS than previously anticipated or shown in FY2019/2020.
IMO those factors are comprehensible reasons for lower prices and also the price trend shown since September 2020.
However, analysts EPS expectation for 2020/2021 is still 27cents per share and even higher for FY 2021/2022. At current prices I concur with these analyst assessments (based upon own modelling of p/l, gold prices and risen AISC) and found that this leaves Regis undervalued compared both to fellow gold bugs as well as to other investment opportunities of similar risk. Moreover, a success with getting the McPhillamys-project on track would also add significant value.
So all in all and provided, that gold prices at least stay where they are or go north - what one would expect in an inflation and negative interest environment - Regis quite simply is a bargain with known negative news overaccounted for.
Unless, and that is what I have been saying all along, there are additional bad news of some siginificance. I don´t believe it and so I am still buying.
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