"Is the main issue here the gold hedging? At the end of march quarterly RRL reported having 340K ounces hedged at 1621AUD. Can anybody shed light on how this came to be, or provide anymore info on the hedging situation?"
Heding is an issue. The hedge book is quite old. As of June-30-2019 there were 451k oz heged at an avg. price of 1.611 AUD (as per annual report FY 2018/2019).
Of course it is quite ususal to forward sell own product for prudent risk management. It especially looks good when prices go down and provides a calculable income stream in that case. However, on the down side it looks bad when product prices go north which they did.
So what some analysts (Goldman Sachs for example, but myself too) do now is to calculate the (negative) value of those contracts by multiplying the number of ounzes sold at fixed prices with the difference between current gold price and average hedging price. Unfortunately, given the substantial difference of around AUD 800 that sums up to a quite substantial figure, despite the fact that Regis has constantly been redusing the amount of product sold forward by constantly selling of part of their production in the hedging contracts as follows:
FY 2019/2020: Reduction by 52k ounzes to 399k ounzes
FY 2020/2021: As of Q3 (March-31-2021) reduction by 61koz to 338k oz; it is planned to go to 320k oz per June-30
Future FY: Reduction by 100k oz per financial year and 120k oz in FY 2023/2024
Of course those sells into the hedge book do reduce the otherwise possible revenue (selling 100k oz for current avg. forward hedging price of AUD 1.571 instead of current prices of AUD 2.350 will cost around 78 million of revenue and profit). The good news is that after the Tropicana deal 100k oz only represents around 20% of total production. Therefore, for the other 80% Regis gets market prices. While the hedging did cost money and will cost some more it will not impede Regis from profiting from rising gold prices. The hedging did and does reduce the sensitivity to gold price changes though. As presented above that effect is being reduced constantly as the hedge book is bleeded of. On prudent analysis of future revenue and earning figures the effects have to be provided for until FY 2023/2024.
It is no problem to do that (calculate the effects into the p/l) and for me earnings and EPS projections look strong. Strong enough to still buy the stock.
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"Is the main issue here the gold hedging? At the end of march...
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Last
$4.39 |
Change
-0.100(2.23%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.316B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$4.47 | $4.53 | $4.37 | $16.81M | 3.793M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 51252 | $4.36 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$4.39 | 7201 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 51252 | 4.360 |
4 | 37004 | 4.350 |
2 | 24411 | 4.340 |
2 | 6157 | 4.310 |
5 | 37325 | 4.300 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
4.390 | 7201 | 1 |
4.400 | 28087 | 1 |
4.410 | 38340 | 4 |
4.420 | 26563 | 3 |
4.430 | 15681 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.17pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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PARADIGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED..
Paul Rennie, MD & Founder
Paul Rennie
MD & Founder
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