EV Company News For The Month Of November 2020
Dec. 02, 2020 3:35 AM ETARVL, AUDVF, AYRO.....Welcome to the November 2020 edition of Electric Vehicle [EV] company news. November saw a month of near records and records from October 2020 electric car sales. The standout for me was Europe. In particular, Germany reaching a record 18% market share and Norway hitting an incredible 88% market share.
On top of all these records, we saw Joe Biden elected with his pro-green stance (including EVs) and the US ZETA trade group formed (goal for 100% EVs by 2030), and the UK green plan (ban of new ICE cars & vans by 2030), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) finally given the green light to join the S&P 500. All of this led to November being an outstanding month for EVs and EV related companies.
Wow, what a month!
Global electric car sales as of end October 2020
Global electric car sales finished October 2020 with a near record 342,000 sales for the month (last month's 345,000 was the record), up 127% on October 2019 (the highest monthly growth rate in over 8 years), with a market share of 4.9% for October 2020, and 3.5% YTD.
Note 68% of all global electric car sales in October 2020 were 100% battery electric vehicles [BEVs], the balance being hybrids.
China electric car sales were 147,000 in October 2020, up 120% on October 2019. Electric car market share in China for October was 7.0%, and 5.4% YTD. Reuters reported in November 2020 China has a 20% NEVs target for 2025. An October 2020 report stated: By 2035, "50% are to be "new-energy" vehicles -- electric, plug-in hybrid or fuel cell-powered. The other half are to be hybrids." This report is created under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and will serve as the basis for China's rules and policies for automobiles.
Europe electric car sales were 147,000 in October 2020, up 195% on October 2019. Europe electric car market share was 13% in October, and 9.5% YTD. In October Norway plug-in EVs sale reached a record 88% market share - A sign of what's to come this decade. A standing ovation for Europe in a superb result. Also noted was a stunning 18% market share result in Germany.
US electric car sales were not reported by EV Sales in October 2020 as it appears many ICE brands don't want to publish their EV sales numbers.
Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.
Note: An acknowledgement to Jose Pontes of EV Sales and EV Volumes for his excellent work compiling all the electric car sales quoted above and below.
Global electric car sales by manufacturer for October 2020
Source: EV-Sales Blogspot
EV sales forecast to really take off from 2022 as affordability kicks in
The chart below aligns with my research that electric car sales will really take-off after 2022, when my model forecasts electric and ICE car purchase price parity.
BloombergNEF 2020 forecast for annual electric vehicle sales are:
- 10% share by 2025 (~9m pa)
- 28% share by 2030 (~24m pa)
- 58% share by 2040 (~54m pa)
Note: Since Tesla Battery day, these forecasts are likely to increase.
BNEF updated 2020 EV forecasts
The BNEF 2020 forecast with the raw numbers and country share
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance [BNEF] 2020 EV report
EV market news
An article I missed from Oct. 8, CGTN reported:
China passes plan to boost new energy vehicle industry. China on Friday passed a development plan for the country's new energy vehicle [NEV] industry to foster new growth areas of green development, according to a statement issued after a State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang... Starting from 2021, at least 80 percent of public transportation, taxi and logistics vehicles in the national ecological civilization pilot zones in Fujian, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Hainan should be new energy vehicles"China passes plan to boost new energy vehicle industry. China on Friday passed a development plan for the country's new energy vehicle [NEV] industry to foster new growth areas of green development, according to a statement issued after a State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang... Starting from 2021, at least 80 percent of public transportation, taxi and logistics vehicles in the national ecological civilization pilot zones in Fujian, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Hainan should be new energy vehicles."
On November 2, Fastmarkets reported:
China launches new energy vehicle industry plan for 2021-35. China’s international competitiveness was expected to improve significantly, with breakthroughs in several key technologies, such as batteries, drive motors and vehicle operating systems. The safety of China’s NEVs was also expected to improve significantly by 2025. The average electric power consumption of pure electric passenger cars was estimated to drop to 12kWh per 100km by 2025, while NEV sales would make up 20% of total vehicle sales. The convenience of recharging or replacing electrical systems would increase significantly over the same period.""China launches new energy vehicle industry plan for 2021-35. China’s international competitiveness was expected to improve significantly, with breakthroughs in several key technologies, such as batteries, drive motors and vehicle operating systems. The safety of China’s NEVs was also expected to improve significantly by 2025. The average electric power consumption of pure electric passenger cars was estimated to drop to 12kWh per 100km by 2025, while NEV sales would make up 20% of total vehicle sales. The convenience of recharging or replacing electrical systems would increase significantly over the same period."
On November 9, CNBC reported:
"What a Biden White House could mean for Tesla (and for the US EV sector). President-elect Joe Biden presents a mixed bag for Tesla and other electric car-makers. On the pro side, Biden’s stated goals for clean energy and manufacturing could mean new government incentives for American manufacturers, especially electric vehicle makers."
"What a Biden White House could mean for Tesla (and for the US EV sector). President-elect Joe Biden presents a mixed bag for Tesla and other electric car-makers. On the pro side, Biden’s stated goals for clean energy and manufacturing could mean new government incentives for American manufacturers, especially electric vehicle makers."
His (Biden's) stated goals include:
- "Building out electric vehicle charging infrastructure, adding at least 500,000 more charging stations, in the U.S.
- Creating 1 million new jobs in the U.S. auto industry alone.
- Replacing the federal government’s vehicle fleet, including cars used for postal service and other federal business, with electric vehicles.
- Working with states to create stricter emissions guidelines for internal combustion engine vehicles.
- Surpassing China in the manufacturing of electric vehicles (including materials and parts).
- Giving rebates, reminiscent of the bygone Cash for Clunkers program, to consumers who trade in less-efficient vehicles for newer, greener cars made in the U.S.
- Increasing battery related research and development, domestically."
On November 17, Reuters reported:
"Quebec to ban sale of new gasoline-powered cars from 2035... Canada’s second-most populous province announced the ban as part of a C$6.7 billion ($5.1 billion) plan over five years to help Quebec meet a target of reducing its greenhouses gases by 37.5% by 2030.""Quebec to ban sale of new gasoline-powered cars from 2035... Canada’s second-most populous province announced the ban as part of a C$6.7 billion ($5.1 billion) plan over five years to help Quebec meet a target of reducing its greenhouses gases by 37.5% by 2030."
On November 17, IGN24 reported:
"Germany: Government and automotive industry to extend electric car subsidies to 2025.""Germany: Government and automotive industry to extend electric car subsidies to 2025."
On November 18, UK Green reported:
"U.K.’s green plan backs 250,000 jobs and bans gas car sales. Sales of new gas and diesel cars to be banned from 2030. The government will back investment in electric vehicles, hydrogen, wind and nuclear power, and measures to make homes more energy efficient."
"U.K.’s green plan backs 250,000 jobs and bans gas car sales. Sales of new gas and diesel cars to be banned from 2030. The government will back investment in electric vehicles, hydrogen, wind and nuclear power, and measures to make homes more energy efficient."
"U.K.’s green plan backs 250,000 jobs and bans gas car sales. Sales of new gas and diesel cars to be banned from 2030. The government will back investment in electric vehicles, hydrogen, wind and nuclear power, and measures to make homes more energy efficient."
Below is a summary of PM Johnson's ten point green plan.
"1. Offshore wind: Quadruple U.K. production to 40GW by 2030, supporting up to 60,000 jobs. 2. Hydrogen: Generate 5 gigawatt of low-carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030. Develop the first town heated entirely by hydrogen by 2030. 3. Nuclear: Advance nuclear as clean energy source by developing large and smaller-scale plants, which could support 10,000 jobs. 4. Electric vehicles: End sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, but allow sale of hybrid vehicles until 2035. Accelerate transition to electric vehicles. 5. Public transport, cycling and walking: Make cycling and walking more attractive, invest in zero-emission public transport. 6. Zero-emission planes and ships: Support “difficult-to-decarbonize” industries to become greener. 7. Homes and public buildings: Make these greener, warmer and more energy-efficient, creating 50,000 jobs by 2030. 8. Carbon capture: Remove 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030. 9. Nature: Plant 30,000 hectares of trees every year. 10. Innovation and finance: Develop cutting-edge technologies and make the City of London a global center of green finance."On November 18, Bloomberg Green reported:
"Tesla, utility giants form trade group calling for 100% EV sales. More than two dozen utilities, EV-charging companies, battery suppliers and EV manufacturers have formed the Zero Emission Transportation Association, which is calling for policies such as consumer incentives and emissions targets that will accelerate the shift to EVs. Group wants emissions caps, total EV adoption by 2030.""Tesla, utility giants form trade group calling for 100% EV sales. More than two dozen utilities, EV-charging companies, battery suppliers and EV manufacturers have formed the Zero Emission Transportation Association, which is calling for policies such as consumer incentives and emissions targets that will accelerate the shift to EVs. Group wants emissions caps, total EV adoption by 2030."
On November 27, The Global Times reported:
"EU to be self-sufficient in EV batteries by 2025... Europe has 15 large-scale battery cell factories under construction, including Swedish company Northvolt's plants in Sweden and Germany, Chinese battery maker CATL's German facility, and South Korean firm SK Innovation's second plant in Hungary. Sefcovic said by 2025 planned European facilities would produce enough cells to power at least 6 million EVs.""EU to be self-sufficient in EV batteries by 2025... Europe has 15 large-scale battery cell factories under construction, including Swedish company Northvolt's plants in Sweden and Germany, Chinese battery maker CATL's German facility, and South Korean firm SK Innovation's second plant in Hungary. Sefcovic said by 2025 planned European facilities would produce enough cells to power at least 6 million EVs."
On December 1, Bloomberg reported: "Peak oil is suddenly upon us." Some excellent charts below.
The Internal Combustion Engine Is History. The pandemic made it clear: Gasoline cars have peaked
Source: Bloomberg
EV company news
Tesla Inc.
Tesla is currently ranked the number 1 globally with 17% global market share. Tesla is 4th in Europe with 7% market share, and number 2 in China with 12% market share. Tesla is still assumed to be the number 1 electric car seller in the US by far.
On November 17, Reuters reported: "Tesla to join S&P 500, spark epic index fund trade."
"Tesla rises after Morgan Stanley finally upgrades to buy, says company on verge of ‘profound’ shift. Jonas raised his price target to $540 from $360."On November 18, CNBC reported:
"Tesla rises after Morgan Stanley finally upgrades to buy, says company on verge of ‘profound’ shift. Jonas raised his price target to $540 from $360.""Tesla rises after Morgan Stanley finally upgrades to buy, says company on verge of ‘profound’ shift. Jonas raised his price target to $540 from $360."
On November 19, Electrek reported: "Tesla Model S passes test as police car for Fremont, saves $4,000 in fuel cost."
On November 24, Tesmanian reported:
"Tesla Giga Berlin to produce affordable compact hatchback designed by local talent to meet European needs... Tesla's CEO Elon Musk later explained that the affordable electric car would be develped by both Chinese Tesla designers and European ones. That is, R&D centers in these countries will develop their own, affordable models."
"Tesla Giga Berlin to produce affordable compact hatchback designed by local talent to meet European needs... Tesla's CEO Elon Musk later explained that the affordable electric car would be developed by both Chinese Tesla designers and European ones. That is, R&D centers in these countries will develop their own, affordable models."
On December 1, Reuters reported: "S&P 500 to swallow Tesla in one gulp; shares surge." To be added on Dec. 21.
Investors can read my June 2019 Blog post: "Tesla - A Look At The Positives And The Negatives", where I rated the stock a buy. It was trading at USD 196.80 (post 5:1 stock split is equivalent to USD 39.36). Or my latest Tesla article on Trend Investing - "Tesla Just Put The Accelerator Down On The EV And Battery Boom."
Volkswagen Group [Xetra:VOW] (OTCPK:VWAGY) (OTCPK:VLKAF)/Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF)/Lamborghini/Porsche (OTCPK
OAHF)/Skoda/Bentley
Volkswagen is currently ranked the number 2 top-selling global electric car manufacturer with 7% market share, and number 1 in Europe with 10% market share.
On November 5, Green Car Reports reported:
"VW project to transition Greek "model island" to electric vehicles, renewable power. The automaker is working with the Greek government to turn Astypalea, in the southern Aegean Sea, into a "model island" for zero-emission transportation. The plan calls for a sharing service encompassing electric cars, e-scooters, and e-bikes. In total, 1,000 electric vehicles will replace about 1,500 internal-combustion vehicles on the island, according to VW."
..........
BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Mini
BMW is currently ranked the number 4 global electric car manufacturer with 6% global market share. BMW is 5th in Europe with 7% market share.
On November 4, BMW reported:
"1. Offshore wind: Quadruple U.K. production to 40GW by 2030, supporting up to 60,000 jobs. 2. Hydrogen: Generate 5 gigawatt of low-carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030. Develop the first town heated entirely by hydrogen by 2030. 3. Nuclear: Advance nuclear as clean energy source by developing large and smaller-scale plants, which could support 10,000 jobs. 4. Electric vehicles: End sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, but allow sale of hybrid vehicles until 2035. Accelerate transition to electric vehicles. 5. Public transport, cycling and walking: Make cycling and walking more attractive, invest in zero-emission public transport. 6. Zero-emission planes and ships: Support “difficult-to-decarbonize” industries to become greener. 7. Homes and public buildings: Make these greener, warmer and more energy-efficient, creating 50,000 jobs by 2030. 8. Carbon capture: Remove 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030. 9. Nature: Plant 30,000 hectares of trees every year. 10. Innovation and finance: Develop cutting-edge technologies and make the City of London a global center of green finance."
"BMW Group confirms outlook for 2020 – significantly improved performance in third quarter. E-autos to be manufactured at all German plants by 2022."
........Peugeot SA [FR:UG][PA
On November 12, FCA reported:
"Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and ENGIE EPS plan to join forces in a JV creating a leading company in the e-Mobility sector... The new entity will be an Italian e-Mobility technology company, with access to a portfolio of more than a hundred patents, a strong team of electrical and system engineers, and an established automotive industrial footprint."
On November 13, Autocar reported:
"Citroen launches site to gauge UK demand for Ami city car. Electric quadricycle is intended to appeal to urban drivers, and UK boss wants it here, but firm is asking potential buyers to register their interest.""Citroen launches site to gauge UK demand for Ami city car. Electric quadricycle is intended to appeal to urban drivers, and UK boss wants it here, but firm is asking potential buyers to register their interest."
On November 23, FCA reported:
"FCA convenes EGM to approve merger with PSA and publishes agenda for the EGM."
...........
Conclusion
October 2020 global electric car sales were up 127% YoY and reached 4.9% global market share (3.5% YTD); 7.0% share in China, 13% in Europe, and no updated figures for the USA. Germany hit a staggering 18% market share.
The biggest trend of 2020 appears to be the ICE car manufacturers finally waking up that they need to urgently shift towards making and selling EVs, or risk going bankrupt this decade. As Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess recently stated (regarding electric cars): "If you're not fast enough, you're not going to survive." This bodes very well for the EV sector and should mean the real EV boom has only just begun.
Highlights for the month were:
- Starting from 2021, at least 80 percent of public transportation, taxi and logistics vehicles in the national ecological civilization pilot zones in Fujian, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Hainan should be new energy vehicles.
- China launches new energy vehicle industry plan for 2021-35. China targets
Disclosure: I am/we are long TESLA (TSLA), BYD CO (HK:1211), RENAULT [FR:RNO], FSR, FUV, XPEV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
- NEV sales of 20% of total vehicle sales by 2025.
- US President Joe Biden plans to strongly support the EV and battery sector in the USA. Also renewable energy.
- Quebec to ban sale of new gasoline-powered cars from 2035.
- German Government and automotive industry to extend electric car subsidies to 2025.
- UK green plan - Bans sales of new gas and diesel cars from 2030.
- A new group in the USA called the the Zero Emission Transportation Association (it has 28 members including Tesla, utility giants) are calling for emissions caps and 100% EV sales in the USA by 2030.
- Electric vehicle sales defy the COVID-19 slump experienced by ICE car sales.
- Tesla to get faster-charging energy-dense battery cells from Panasonic (OTCPK
- Volkswagen raises electric vehicle targets in Europe. Volkswagen AG is accelerating development of a compact electric car that will cost less than 30,000 euros, maybe as early as 2023. Bentley reveals plan to go fully electric by 2030. Volkswagen's ID.3 surges to become the number 1 for electric car sales in Europe in October.
- BYD Co. - Greater Paris receives first electric coach from BYD.
- BMW - E-autos to be manufactured at all German plants by 2022.
- Daimler-Mercedes - “We will be a smaller company”, says Daimler boss. The premium car maker will have a totally different structure in five-years’ time.
- Nissan to stop selling ICEs in China by 2025.
- Volvo Trucks launches a complete range of electric trucks starting in Europe in 2021.
- Nissan plans to sell only electric and hybrid cars in China from 2025.
- Hyundai to expand electrified, eco-focused line-up to ten Models in 2022.
- Ford is betting on commercial electric vehicles, affordable EVs, says CEO.
- NIO delivered 5,055 vehicles in October 2020, increasing by 100.1% year-over-year. NIO delivered 5,291 vehicles in November, +109%YoY.
- XPeng delivered 3,040 vehicles in October, +229% Y/Y. XPeng delivered 4,224 vehicles in Nov., +342% YoY.
- GM: New batteries cut electric car costs, increase range. GM Ultium cells LLC seeking 1,100 team members to help power GM’s all-electric future. GM thirty new global EV launches planned through 2025.
- Fisker Inc. first Wall Street rating comes in bullish. Cowen's price target of $22. Citi assigns a Fisker price target of $26.
- Nikola - GM pulls equity stake in Nikola as well as plans for building Nikola's electric pickup truck.
- BlackRock-backed Arrival to list after sale to blank-check firm CIIG Merger Corp.
- Rivian sells out first version of its electric pickup truck.
- Arcimoto and City of Orlando launch joint Municipal Pilot Program to test ultra-efficient electric vehicles in City Fleets.
- Walmart teams up with Cruise to pilot all-electric self-driving delivery powered by 100% renewable energy.
- Tesla FSD Full Self-Driving 5 to rollout in a few days with significant improvements.
Matt Bohlsen
read the entire comprehensive article here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4392467
Understanding lithium demand, page-1206
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