'You were well off these SP projections as was the company with their timelines.'But was I?
Given that AVZ is currently trading above 30 cents and we are still awaiting
Additional Tin Offtake &
MOU on Funding with syndicated DFIs (two of the four target catalysts slated to achieve 30c), then I'd opine that the
30c conditional target guestimate is a big green tick that has proved conservative.
The
40c target was conditional on the
HEPP PPP agreement, Mining License Award and
Optimised DFS (now BFS) target catalysts, none of which have been achieved as I type (but hopefully all can be within the next 1-4 weeks). However, given that the SP hit 37c recently, I'd opine that my 40c target guestimate is possibly too conservative and could easily be surpassed once all of the above milestones have been met IMO.
Similarly, my
50c target was conditional on
FID and the commencement of
Construction, both of which are still TBC but looking more and more likely IMO.
Again, my musings suggest that the 50c guestimate is probably too conservative and could easily be surpassed once these two milestones have been met. Potentially a 60c - $1 target is feasible by that stage IMO.
Finally, I stand by my target of
$1 ++ by commencement of
production of SC6, although
if AVZ confirm a 10mtpa operation by mid 2023, then I reserve the right to double that no. to
$2 ++ .To be clear and for the avoidance of any doubt, I am not in control of company timelines and can only guestimate SP outcomes based on the actual achievement of target catalysts. Therefore, I've updated the previous timeline estimates (in yellow) on the
Target Catalysts slide below, in line with the latest company ann. IMO. And I stand by my original SP estimates, conservatively and then some.
View attachment 3659591GLTA and please note that the above is all IMO and should not be considered as advice of any kind.
Please DYOR.
Cheers
Elpha
