Lets discuss this comment first:
"
What concerns me about a Hydroxide plant is that NF hasn't considered the requirements to transport massive quantities of reagents etc into Manono. Where is he going to source those reagents and how big would the Hydroxide plant need to be to convert millions of tpa of Spodumene?"
In terms of your comments on reagents, if AVZ does move to hydroxide I suspect this will be done at a regional centre like
Lubumbashi (not at minesite) that is served by rail, or near a port area making the transport of reagents and finished hydroxide product easier. We know the growing market is the hydroxide market, but i suspect AVZ will be exporting 6% grade spodumene anyway in the initial stages of development here. I see this as just noise at the moment
But now lets correct some errors: at 1.6% Li20 a 5 mtpa facility at a 80% recovery rate AVZ, at a 5 mtpa ore feed facility, noting it could initially start with 2 mtpa, will be producing roughly 1,050,000 million tonnes 6% grade spodumene. To produce LIOH requires roughly 11.5 tonnes 6% grade spodumene, so that production produces 91,300 LioH tonnes. LioH H20, been lithium hydroxide monohydrate is what you actually require for batteries (6.5 tonnes of 6% spodumene grade) means you actually produce 161,500 tonnes of LioH H20 from a 5mtpa facility, if you decide to convert the spodumene yourself. Refer - Post #:
38926162What I suspect, like Greenbushes is heading would be a mix of spodumene concentrate sales and hydroxide product overtime, but hydroxide production won't happen for AVZ until down the track in any event IMO - 6% grade spodumene sales come first here.
In terms of hydroxide, the following posts give my view there, many on this thread itself:
1. What is lithium hydroxide monohydrate and how it works in batteries, plus the growing hydroxide market and why hard rock is best placed to serve it (also see 4 below) - Post #:
380398382. On power needs - Post #:
34114641 and Post #:
387520243. On importance of having low iron and impurities to supply the hydroxide market - Post #:
39013822 and Post #:
39012970 and Post #:
383643964. Problem of brine covering the demand gap - Post #:
38220639Personally, I see the 6% grade spodumene AVZ produces will be exported and converted into hydroxide in another country for at least for the first 3 to 5 years that AVZ commences production IMO. Maybe after that they might, and I use the term might, export a combination of 6% grade spodumene and hydroxide. If hydroxide is produced by AVZ it will be later down the track with the facilities close to an energy source plus rail/port facilities (like the hydroxide facilities been built in WA by Tianqi and Albermale (which are away from the Greenbushes mine itself).
Agree, and to put this into context:
1. When a deposit grades 1.6% Li20, compared to say 1.26% at PLS, what you get is 27% more revenue per each element of installed capacity, assuming the recovery rates are the same (80%).
2. Referring back to point 1, when you have a waste to ore ratio of say 0.6:1 compared to say other hard rock deposits of more than 4:1 (with the exception of Greenbushes which is less than 3:1 from recollection but a higher grade to AVZ), at minesite that actually means lower opex costs (i.e. note transport is a post minesite cost). It also means a higher recovery rate is achievable (i.e. the 80% above) and might explain why it is taking players like GXY and PLS a lot longer to hit, and they still have not hit, their forecast recovery rates in their own respective DFS. Refer: Post #:
383666573. When you have a good tin byproduct, and it is very good here for AVZ - refer Post #:
37739957 , that can offset aspects of transport costs, but 1 and 2 also operate to reduce the adverse impacts of having a higher transport cost in your project assessments than say the likes of PLS/GXY but overall your total costs, including credits can come in below US$300 per tonne (noting the 5mtpa SS came in at US$321 per tonne without credits so getting US$50 credits here for tin/tantulum which I feel is a possibility well that reduces your opex costs below US$300 per tonne - Post #:
38704089).
For AVZ getting to market has always been about whether a transport option is available IMO for it to be able to exploit the opportunities of the supply/demand imbalance, and as I posted previously on this thread those Morgan Stanley forecasts were crap indeed with real basic errors contained within them - refer Post #:
37957535Or in other words, and the reason for this thread was to show that there will be a demand gap that AVZ can fill by 2025, because supply from brine nd existing producers won't bridge the gap as per the first two pages of this thread etc, which is the purpose of the thread itself, and obviously transport solutions (which I felt could be debated in another thread when I established this one) was a key to resolve in any event (an obvious point).
But have to say, I didn't want to be debating project economics for AVZ in terms of cost structures etc in this thread - see below - but things move on and I guess 8 pages into this thread (which I have been pleasantly surprised the thread has kept going) I did suspect other topic areas would come in anyway just like they have in the Road to Manono thread.
BTW@8horse the above is not directed at you, I just kept typing after agreeing with you LOL
No worries, this thread has evolved over time and is now seeking to marry up demand to supply opportunities, i.e. can AVZ enter the market by 2025 for example because of the demand gap over supply etc etc, which is a debate which has also started in this thread.
What I didn't want this thread to debate was 'transport options etc' which are the basis of the Road to Manono' thread and other off topic issues like Ebola LOL etc etc. It is a question of where demand is growing and where supply can come from (and hence why in part in the opening post I say the thread is more than just AVZ etc etc and could be relevant to other hard rock plays etc etc).
My personal view, which I didn't really want to debate in this thread was that AVZ needed to break teh relationship off with Hauyou and find another avenue. I stated at much in this post in this other thread - Post #:
39026191 But that is just my view.
VBs downed, over and out.
