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Thanks @Taurean7 Much appreciated Regards Bloky

Currently unlisted. Proposed listing date: 4 SEPTEMBER 2024 #

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Bloky

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1616

10/11/18

16:50

Post #: 36458707
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Originally posted by Taurean7 ↑

Final trial results are those prepared for publication in the clinical research literature, and are more extensive than what would be required for announcement as preliminary (or top line) to a financial market. Generally they could include issues of whether there is evidence of the results being influenced by variables such as gender or age, which among other things can lead to improved results for a more limited patient population.

As a completely hypothetical and highly unlikely example of this, and taking the 67% PPA for focal pneumonia as a base, further analysis could show that this figure was the averaged result of a PPA of 50% for female patients and an 84% PPA for males. Submission then could go ahead for FDA approval as an excellent diagnostic tool for the detection of pneumonia in male children with little need for further justification.

In the SmatCough-C2 case we are told that further justification is being prepared through reference to its ‘next phase’.

Divorced of any ResAppDx connection there exists within the US trial data set the ability to determine the level of reliability of its own results, because more than one method of diagnosis was employed. For example, a patient diagnosis determined by chest X-ray can be compared with a diagnostic opinion formed from a symptoms and stethoscope analysis. Published results of similar studies, some of which have been cited in earlier HC posts, show the expected level of agreement between these two methodologies to be poor (around 55-60%).

Such a comparison forms the basis for the ‘next phase’ analysis that we are told is being undertaken in order to demonstrate the higher diagnostic capability of ResAppDx. In the conference call Keating indicated that the US researchers had already requested permission for this internal comparison to be undertaken and its results published.

As an example of why this comparative exercise will be valuable, if such an internal analysis showed the combined US pneumonia diagnoses to be 70% reliable (probably quite generous), then this figure can be used statistically to demonstrate that ResAppDx has a superior diagnostic reliability of 93%.*

[* Agreement probability of two correct diagnoses is 70% x 93% = 65%.
Agreement probability of two incorrect diagnoses is 30% x 7% = 2%.
Total probable percent agreement is 65% + 2% = 67% (the PPA reported).]

This form of calculation can be used to demonstrate that ResAppDx’s diagnostic capability for pneumonia would be superior for any resulting US reliability figure lower than 79%.

It should be possible to undertake similar internal analyses for the other diseases tested where the US researchers have employed more than one diagnostic method.

I expect those researchers also would wish to compare each diagnostic method against the ResAppDx decision for all diseases, to quantify to what extent an X-ray diagnosis can produce a higher level of agreement than a stethoscope, for example, as a contribution to the final published results.

So there is still a wealth of information to be obtained from further analysis, none of which should be very time consuming, that can only lead to improvements in the results reported as preliminary.

All IMO

T7

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Thanks @Taurean7
Much appreciated

Regards
Bloky

RAP Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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