Understanding Telix, page-1362

A few random thoughts.

I popped over to the CU6 threads and they're talking a lot about CB's comments on the company. There's one thing they all don't mention.

CB mostly discusses competition in the abstract sense. While it's obvious when he's alluding to Pylarify/ Lantheus he mostly doesn't name them. Neither do they about Telix. This is simple communications practice: you're talking about your own story not someone else's. CB only talks about CU6 directly when he's asked a specific question about them, and it's usually no more than about 30 seconds out of a whole presentation.

So I think this idea that TLX management is losing sleep over CU6 based on their behaviour so far is a bit far fetched.

I think as investors it's important not to be cheerleaders and respect the competition. I'm not sure about CU6's focus on isotope uber alles, but it looks like so far they have executed well. I do think that they have ridden on Telix's coattails a bit, and good luck to them. Their financials look OK (about 3 years' worth of cash based on their balance sheet, after raising 120m earlier this year) so they should have enough money to transfer some of the more, um, anecdotal aspects of their recent annual report into proper trial results.

I'm still sticking to my pet theories and speculations that (a) the CAIX program is where the action will really be, Illucix will just be a stepping stone and (b) the TAM for Zircaix may undergo an upward revision, just like it did for the Illucix/PSMA market. So while other good results (eg EU/UK) may give the SP a kick, the real deal will be approval of Zircaix. I think the market trajectory of PSMA will be a good guide here: it will hit annualised $US150m within six months.