In this market of Bubbles and Inefficiencies I think it is very important to think about the future with logic and evidence. Most people deal with new information like a possum that has died in their roof and the whole house smells terrible.
How many LFP's ("Logical Financial Premise" - We can make make short term, mid-term and long-term deductions and form conclusions from LFP's) do we use when investing?
Many people receive information and then react one move deep. In chess we call these people wood pusher's.
Game theory would suggest there is always alternatives and solutions and higher orders of thought possible when presented with information. In chess calculation is a sure and true way to navigate complexity.
What does this have to do with MRF?
With LFP's we can look past the next 3 months to the coming 18 months. Rigorous thought and evidence processing takes practice. If the coming collapse of the USD occurs then we could see prices for Veiners that seem unbelievable.
LFP's are purely evidence based to determine value and future value but must be treated with a critical eye.
1/ If you look to hire financial people you will find out they are loaded up with degrees and MBA's and they are a dime a dozen, impractical academics that are an army of university uselessness on the whole. Would you hire them? Logic has to gather all the facts available to have any hope of accuracy. What can they do, what are they willing to learn? How important is education really?
2/ Holding cash in collapses is an important issue; maybe banks are not as safe as you might think? USD strong for how long? Weak against who? Paper loses value across the world; they all print. It may appear that having savings in a bank is prudent or some land but both can be wiped out in a brutal reaction to collapse.
5/ Many of the big stocks are going to be obsolescent in the future; look at Kodak! Who is trying to end net neutrality and control the people? Facebook, Google, all the big names are going to suffer because of automation and innovation.; Someone in their basement can be a better, freer, Utube! change is exponential and most people do not know how to conceive this.
- Automatic vehicles?
- Organ Printing (Lifespans doubling)
- AI Teachers free for all parents
- AI News Reporters scanning and then reporting without people!
- Robot Nurses/Firemen
- Graphene Chips?
- Cheap flights to space?
How many companies exist now that will be worthless tomorrow?
Recently on the weekend I wrote about the future on a weekend DT post that I think has many important points in my opinion. Definitely worth sharing here:
"I think as the Demographic cliff stops everything else we are going to enter an economic downturn never seen before because of the global integration. "Sometimes we stare to long at the door that is closing that we miss the door that is open." (Bell)
The largest generation in history is retiring and taking their money with them.
1/ Life expectancy in the West over the last 100 years has almost doubled from 46 to 80! In emerging nations it has gone from 26 to 70! This drops fertility as a result of longevity. So we have over 45's working and women no longer needing to have 10 children for a few to survive.
2/ The Us birth rates rose 52 % between 46 and 64 and then fell. This created a massive consumption super cycle. Baby boomers are 55 and have to save to 80+ and their saving don't add up! 25% of US population is in this 55 yrs group and spending peaks and falls between 45 and 54 !
3/ The US cannot grow because people are living longer. This applies across the west.
4/ Only people create wealth. Because of the aging population this means growth sectors are the aging population, technology and emerging nations.
5/ China is facing the challenge of allowing the population more control over their government. Most cities and nations have failed in this transition. China is facing a massive property crisis and corruption and unsustainable ventures. Because of the 1 Child policy China's elderly population is exploding without savings. Where is China's middle class? Only 4% of China's workers are earning $20+ a day.
Rich but old - West
Poor but young - India
Poor but Aging - China, Russia
Metals must redirect its focus; cheap goods for the poor and elderly! Metals must refocus upon the demographics that matter. Focus on the technology, the poor, and the elderly. People have less money but want the lifestyle. Niche markets are where the Metals need to go and all the stimulus packages in the world will only hasten the coming event."
Graphite and especially Vein graphite is going to allow us to uplift the poor of the world and create a cheaper, freer world out of this coming collapse. Capital flight looks for the best deals they can get and protect the capital. If the USD blows itself up over the next 18 months then Small cap Veiners like MRF could see $9 prices just on principle. This seems crazy right?
Dow 17,000 is on the wrong side of history
Opinion: Since 1929, stock-market rallies have had things in common that this one doesn’t
So I think we all are heading for interesting times and the more we exercise our logic the better because speculation is inherently risky.
Kind Regards
PS - All my thoughts and opinions are my own and could be completely wrong. Do your own research; I share this for fun and intellectual discussion and interest only, what do you think?
MRF Price at posting:
9.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
