I welcome input as I am seeking to understand the future share-price potential for BrainChip. I'll start with what I know and those of you with more experience can weigh in. (My apologies as this is going to be in US$)
First, with 1.6billion shares at a share price of approximately $0.47, the current market cap is approximately $752M (having that many outstanding shares is unfortunate as it has a depressing impact on share price, but there is nothing we can do about that).
There are some unknowns that are critical in calculating future potential, but I will at least lay out the formula and hopefully some of you can help fill in the gaps.
First, future revenue is calculated as: (Chip price X number of chips sold) + (IP chip price X number of IP chips sold) = Revenue
Now, how do we get to the "number of chips" or "number of IP chips" on a per customer basis. I'm sure this would vary widely. For example, if Ford becomes a customer, how many chips would they utilize per car? Is that 1 chip per car? 10 chips per car? And, it just seems to get more complex from their as you consider other customer types. So, if anyone has a good way to estimate the number of chips please add that info.
Ok, assuming we can get to a reliable predictor of how many chips would be sold annually and what reasonable chip/IP-chip growth would look like, then we can predict revenue. Once we have a reasonable revenue projection, we can predict valuation as follows: Valuation = (revenue X revenue multiple). I'm going to use a 20X multiple but it could be 10X or it could be 50X.
Once we have the revenue multiple and calculate the valuation, then we can calculate share price as follows: Share Price = (valuation / outstanding shares).
Now if we work this backward and the question is how do we get to a $25 share price, the answer is as follows: ($25 share price X1.6B shares = valuation of $40B. $40B divided by a revenue multiple of 20X = $2Billion in revenue. If the chip price is $15 a chip, then $2B in revenue divided by $15 per chip = 133Million chips.
This brings me back to the primary issue, which is, I have no idea how to predict potential number of chips sold going forward. If any of you know how to predict number of chips sold in the future, please let me know. And, thank you for your patience in reading this!
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