SWF should not get into the ASX clearing business. They are about 13% to 14% of Openmarkets (OM) turnover and have not got the critical mass to make that type of business profitable. OM has carried forward losses of $29m as of 2020 and are probably only getting into a profitable position after the bullish past 12 months. It is unlikely that SWF could scale and carve out turnover the size of OM.
In terms of supplier dependency, there are alternatives to OM.
The positives for SWF is the US trading business and how that scales to give a broader revenue base.
Negatives are that they reported $1.9m in interest revenue for the 6 months to December, or $1m a quarter. The risk is ANZ giving them 12 months notice to reduce the rate. The March quarter 4C was +$558k, so they need that interest.
The other risk is continued high level of number of trades. SWF turnover is tracking OM turnover over the past 12 months, and OM is tracking down about 20% for April.
Looks like a wait and see IMO.
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