unemployment and house prices, page-2

The older article has proven to be 100% correct. Mainstream economists could learn a lot from these guys:

"In what could be an ominous sign for Australian retailers, the decline in real home prices over the past year has yet to be reflected in the household consumption figures, which have yet to turn down from their post-GFC bounce. If the recent correlation between home values and household consumption holds, then Australian retailers could face several quarters of declining sales growth ahead.

And to make matters worse for retailing, Delusional Economics recently showed that mortgage credit growth usually leads house prices by up to six months. So with mortgage credit growth having fallen recently (see below chart), Australia can expect further house price weakness, which should also depress household consumption and retail sales going forward."