Speculator. I have seen too many individuals and companies putting all of their eggs in the one basket, "their Holy Grail" only to go broke doing so.
It will cost hundreds of millions to fully explore and develop 855 and selling every asset that ICN hold, other than 855, would probably not even pay for a miniscule percentage of those costs. And we certainly couldn't buy any more equity in 855 even if we did raise a bundle. Wouldn't imagine BPT entertaining that prospect and they hold the other 60%. Maybe, ICN should have tried getting more equity while ADE held the other 20%???
We have a market cap of less than $90 million, that tells us what "the market value" of our "assets" are. I would imagine,all but our 40% interest in 855, has been totally discounted.
RJ believes that PEP170 is highly prospective and we will better understand what he is getting at when we drill those two wells that he plans in the next 6 or so months. He considers that PEP 170 will help ICN deliver on the GSA. So, let's run with that.
He "still" has very high hopes with 626, but, 626 demonstrates exactly what the majors are experiencing with CSG and was the topic of my earlier post from the Industry News article. The stuff is there in 626, but it takes dozens of wells to find those essential sweet spots. ICN is hog tied to the bureaucracy of a government instrumentality in Stanwell, who hold all the cash, and they are no doubt going through the wringer under their new government. Just another reason why Cooper Basin shale is looking so attractive.
Although he may not have been as obvious as Reg has been with BPT, RJ would be first to admit that he would be exploring EVERY avenue to needed to stay in the game in 855.
He and Reg have stated that the cost will be beyond the financial capabilities of BOTH BPT and ICN, so, it is no secret that every stone would be being turned to "find" those means. And based on simple fundamental logic, that would have to come at the cost of equity in 855, or, losing it altogether, by a very unwanted hostile takeover by one of the majors (not BPT).
Speculator, ICN is a Punt with a capital P and should be viewed accordingly. It is a jigsaw puzzle of if's and hopes, connected by a long history. If people want to speculate on ICN, they have to decide if there is enough "glue" in the historic work that RJ has done to enable him to put all the pieces together into a company that will provide a worthwhile return to its shareholders.
I have personally reached the conclusion that I am happy with, but, I have often been very wrong too.
The next 3-4 months, "could" see that jigsaw puzzle take a more definite shape and I am more than happy to be in it for the ride.
I am waiting for news that the Ensign rig has officially left the U.S. When it lands in Australia, when it is on site on 855 and when it starts to drill.
I will also be watching further results from BPT from 218.
And the "mystery" that none of us can anticipate, are the unknowns such as ICN finding a capital source, or, a T/O from left field, or, "someone" buying up sizeable parcels of shares on the market.
All in all, enough to keep an old bloke "entertained" for the next few months. IMO, the SP will also bounce around based on those developments. Enjoy the ride.
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