Unpacking Senegal's Oil prospects, page-42

So here we are, 11c, confirms that a fair chunk was in the SP already.
BUT, as a long term holder, by god this looks quite cheap.

We all remember the incredible run and continuous green days from 4c to 10c and I think this could ignite again any moment.
It only takes another Farjoy to come along, now that prelim results are out, anyone, like a Conoco or Shell, who wanted to start to accumulate an interest, via a fund or independent body as they always do, could start this process pretty quickly.
Oil being down as low as it’s been for so long is not helping the cause. But the POO doesn’t matter for FAR right now.
Im back in today after running the ruler of what’s occurred so far

A quick snapshot of what I think…
Cash after drill 20m
WA assets 5m
Kenya 70m (accounting for a JV and a back payment, probably 10m)
GB 30m
AGC 15m
Senegal ?
(140m, 5cps) without Senegal

So far we have very limited, initial results of a 29m net oil column across of total hydrocarbon bearing zone of 500m….so the 29m could easily increase.
API looks good
& for Cairn to already state that this results is ‘significant’ & could lead to a ‘standalone development’ in itself is massive imo
They wouldn’t make those comments if the initial feedback from the lab and the rig were that its probably not going to flow or its too complex ect..

If we take a number in between P10 & p50, where I’m estimating/hoping this FAN-1 well could land, 750m barrels
30% recovery and 15% FAR interest
FAR can book about 40m barrels

For this to happen, we firstly need more definitive results and then a FAN-2 appraisal well.
Which would cost FAR about 12million

If you use about US$8 barrel NPV……that’s a value of FAN-1 alone of 320m…US
So in actual fact, its AUD 350m
Take out the appraisal well costs and add the risk events….that 750m is confirmed and commericality confirmed
Today the market attributes about 160m to the whole permit….Which makes me a buyer at these levels.

You would have to assign about 50m to the rest of the permit and SNE-1 at this point in time and you could probably argue that SNE-1 requires more
If you were prepared to take on the risks that still remain for FAN-1, then you could assign 350m comfortably….along with the 140m mentioned above
& we’re at 540m or 20 cps

You can clearly see why FarJoy was happy to make their biggest single transaction purchase at 14c